Trial reportTransactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene2015
Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.
Trial report in Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence in the Central Region, Burkina Faso: A time series analyses.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil.PloS one · 2025Article
- Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- The effect of temperature on dengue virus transmission byFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Review
- Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- American Mammals Susceptibility to Dengue According to Geographical, Environmental, and Phylogenetic Distances.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
- Space-Time Conditional Autoregressive Modeling to Estimate Neighborhood-Level Risks for Dengue Fever in Cali, Colombia.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Entomological Investigation Detects Dengue Virus Type 1 inThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Socio-Ecological Factors Associated with Dengue Risk andInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Economic analysis of dengue prevention and case management in the Maldives.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting.eLife · 2017Article
- Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas.Nature microbiology · 2016Article
- Epidemiology of Chikungunya Virus in Bahia, Brazil, 2014-2015.PLoS currents · 2016Article
- Modeling Mosquito-Borne Disease Spread in U.S. Urbanized Areas: The Case of Dengue in Miami.PloS one · 2016Article
- A dengue outbreak on a floating village at Cat Ba Island in Vietnam.BMC public health · 2015Article
- Health engagement in national climate commitments of small island developing states: A content analysis of Caribbean nationally determined contributions.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
- Climatic thresholds associated with increased dengue incidence across climate zones in Peru (2001-2022).The journal of climate change and healthArticle
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTransmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear.
methodsWe randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks.
resultsMinimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4-16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings.
conclusionsThis analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledge of global determinants of dengue risk and provides a basis for understanding the ecology of dengue endemicity.
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