Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25766232›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2015

Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

Saki Takahashi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Matthew J Ferrari, William J Moss, Shaun A Truelove, Andrew J Tatem, Bryan T Grenfell, Justin Lessler

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 115 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
115citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

115 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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55 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Saki TakahashiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
Matthew J FerrariCentre for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
William J MossDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Shaun A TrueloveDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Andrew J TatemDepartment of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Flowminder Foundation, 17177 Stockholm, Sweden.
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. justin@jhu.edu.

Funding

Transmission ProjectU19AI089674 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MATTHEW G DORSEY, MOSES Robert KAMYA · 2010 to 2026
$29.3M
Methods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089674NIAID NIH HHS U19AI089674
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.

Indexed as

Measles VaccineChild, PreschoolDisease OutbreaksDisease SusceptibilityGuineaHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansImmunization ProgramsInfantLiberiaMeaslesSierra LeoneVaccinationMeasles Vaccine

Identifiers

PMID25766232
PMCPMC4691345

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.