Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25761729›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2015

Projection of osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in China: 2010-2050.

L Si, T M Winzenberg, Q Jiang, M Chen, A J Palmer

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 303 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
303citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

303 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. The Healing and therapeutic effects of perioperative bisphosphonate use in patients with fragility fractures: meta-analysis of 19 clinical trials.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of related fractures in developed economies in the Asia Pacific region: a systematic review.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2023
    Pooled it
  8. Pooled it
  9. Pooled it
  10. Pooled it
  11. Trial
  12. Trial
  13. Trial
  14. Effect of a home-based resistance exercise program in elderly participants with osteoporosis: a randomized controlled trial.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2022
    Trial
  15. Trial
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Osteoporosis in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in China: A Cross-Sectional Study of 2533 Participants.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2026
    Article
  20. Article

243 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

L SiMenzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7000, Australia.
T M Winzenberg
Q Jiang
M Chen
A J Palmer

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

unlabelledA state-transition microsimulation model was used to project the substantial economic burden to the Chinese healthcare system of osteoporosis-related fractures. Annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050. Consequently, cost-effective intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures.

introductionThe aim of the study was to project the osteoporosis-related fractures and costs for the Chinese population aged ≥50 years from 2010 to 2050.

methodsA state-transition microsimulation model was used to simulate the annual incident fractures and costs. The simulation was performed with a 1-year cycle length and from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. Incident fractures and annual costs were estimated from 100 unique patient populations for year 2010, by multiplying the age- and sex-specific annual fracture risks and costs of fracture by the corresponding population totals in each of the 100 categories. Projections for 2011-2050 were performed by multiplying the 2010 risks and costs of fracture by the respective annual population estimates. Costs were presented in 2013 US dollars.

resultsApproximately 2.33 (95 % CI 2.08, 2.58) million osteoporotic fractures were estimated to occur in 2010, costing $9.45 (95 % CI 8.78, 10.11) billion. Females sustained approximately three times more fractures than males, accounting for 76 % of the total costs from 1.85 (95 % CI 1.68, 2.01) million fractures. The annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050.

conclusionsOur study demonstrated that osteoporosis-related fractures cause a substantial economic burden which will markedly increase over the coming decades. Consequently, healthcare resource planning must consider these increasing costs, and cost-effective screening and intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures on the health of the burgeoning population as well as the healthcare budget.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionChinaFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansIncidenceMaleMarkov ChainsMiddle AgedModels, EconometricOsteoporosisOsteoporotic FracturesPrevalenceReproducibility of Results

Identifiers

PMID25761729

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.