ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2015
The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Article
- Clinical epidemiology of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in Barcelona (Spain). A single-center study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Effects of Restrictive Abortion Legislation on Cohort Mortality Evidence from 19Journal of public economics · 2025Article
- Identifying optimal vaccination scenarios to reduce varicella zoster virus transmission and reactivation.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: an elevation of age at infection.PeerJ · 2022Article
- Exploring the Seasonal Drivers of Varicella Zoster Virus Transmission and Reactivation.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Risk of herpes zoster after exposure to varicella to explore the exogenous boosting hypothesis: self controlled case series study using UK electronic healthcare data.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2020Observational
- Epidemiology of herpes zoster in the State of Qatar, 2012-2017.Qatar medical journal · 2020Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.PloS one · 2019Article
- Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Article
- The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling.PeerJ · 2018Article
- Article
- Current and future effects of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Germany - Insights from a mathematical model in a country with universal varicella vaccination.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2016Article
- The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling.American journal of epidemiology · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes zoster (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures to VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation and its dependence on the accumulation of re-exposure episodes, adopting a long-term perspective may be useful to correctly interpret current epidemiological trends of VZV. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of demographic changes on varicella and HZ in Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model informed with historical demographic data and calibrated against age-specific profiles of varicella seroprevalence and HZ incidence data. The model qualitatively reproduces the remarkable growth of HZ incidence observed in Spain between 1997 and 2004, before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. We demonstrate that this growth may be partially ascribed to the reduction of varicella circulation that followed the overall decline of the birth rate in the twentieth century. Model predictions further suggest that, even under the most optimistic projections, HZ incidence will continue its rise until at least 2040. Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.