ArticleAnnals of family medicine2015
Estimating the residency expansion required to avoid projected primary care physician shortages by 2035.
Article in Annals of family medicine, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The involvement of specialists in primary healthcare teams for managing diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC primary care · 2025Pooled it
- Pooled it
- The Role of Physician and Practice Characteristics in the Quality of Diabetes Management in Primary Care: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Journal of general internal medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Impact of integrating pharmacists into primary care teams on health systems indicators: a systematic review.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2019Pooled it
- The effectiveness of nurse practitioner care for patients with mental health conditions in primary care settings: A systematic review.Nursing outlookPooled it
- Blended Learning Compared With Face-to-Face Learning Among Family Medicine Residents: Randomized Controlled Trial.JMIR medical education · 2026Trial
- Forecasting the physical medicine and rehabilitation workforce through 2037: National and geographic disparities in supply and demand.PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation · 2026Article
- (How) does majoring in the social sciences and humanities relate to specialty choice?: a cross-sectional study.BMC medical education · 2026Article
- Take Back Primary Care.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Influence of Preclinical Medical Scribe Experiences on Specialty Outcomes in Fourth-year Medical Students.Medical science educator · 2026Article
- Sustaining Primary Care Pathways: A Vital Strategy for Meeting Urban and Rural Workforce Needs.Family medicine · 2026Article
- Potential increase of the U.S. total fertility rate resulting from restorative treatment of unresolved subfertility: a simulation study.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2026Article
- Imbalanced access to pediatric primary care in Switzerland: geographic differences and modeled future challenges.European journal of pediatrics · 2025Article
- Milestones Progression of International Medical Graduates in Family Medicine.Family medicine · 2025Article
- US Primary Care Workforce Growth: A Decade of Limited Progress, and Projected Needs Through 2040.Journal of general internal medicine · 2025Article
- The Transformative Care Continuum: implementing an accelerated pathway that addresses the new roles of the family medicine physician.Medical education online · 2024Review
- Challenges and opportunities in pediatric residency: an analysis of the increasing number of residents in Italy.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2024Article
- A Longitudinal Pediatric Primary Care Residency Tailored to Meet Workforce Need: A 10-Year Evaluation.Journal of graduate medical education · 2024Article
- Navigating the doctor-patient-AI relationship - a mixed-methods study of physician attitudes toward artificial intelligence in primary care.BMC primary care · 2024Article
- Nurses can be key "REACH" accountable care organization partners to mitigate Medicare inequity.Health affairs scholar · 2023Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeThe purpose of this study was to calculate the projected primary care physician shortage, determine the amount and composition of residency growth needed, and estimate the impact of retirement age and panel size changes.
methodsWe used the 2010 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey to calculate utilization of ambulatory primary care services and the US Census Bureau to project demographic changes. To determine the baseline number of primary care physicians and the number retiring at 66 years, we used the 2014 American Medical Association Masterfile. Using specialty board and American Osteopathic Association figures, we estimated the annual production of primary care residents. To calculate shortages, we subtracted the accumulated primary care physician production from the accumulated number of primary care physicians needed for each year from 2015 to 2035.
resultsMore than 44,000 primary care physicians will be needed by 2035. Current primary care production rates will be unable to meet demand, resulting in a shortage in excess of 33,000 primary care physicians. Given current production, an additional 1,700 primary care residency slots will be necessary by 2035. A 10% reduction in the ratio of population per primary care physician would require more than 3,000 additional slots by 2035, whereas changing the expected retirement age from 66 years to 64 years would require more than 2,400 additional slots.
conclusionsTo eliminate projected shortages in 2035, primary care residency production must increase by 21% compared with current production. Delivery models that shift toward smaller ratios of population to primary care physicians may substantially increase the shortage.
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