ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2015
Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The epidemiology of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic in Africa: a systematic review.African health sciences · 2020Pooled it
- Identifying viral infections through metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing of undiagnosed respiratory fevers in Madagascar (2014-2019).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Identifying climatic drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality in Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2011-2021: a sentinel surveillance study.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Article
- Circulation and seasonality of influenza viruses in different transmission zones in Africa.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Exploration of influenza incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors in Lanzhou, China, 2014-2017.PloS one · 2022Article
- The COVID-19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march-september 2020.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2021Article
- Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: Lessons learnt in research and capacity building.Epidemics · 2019Review
- Seasonal dynamics of influenza in Brazil: the latitude effect.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Dynamics of influenza in tropical Africa: Temperature, humidity, and co-circulating (sub)types.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Article
- Epidemiology of seasonal influenza in the Middle East and North Africa regions, 2010-2016: Circulating influenza A and B viruses and spatial timing of epidemics.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Article
- Article
- Both hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations would have missed near half of the circulating viruses in Madagascar.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2017Article
- Influenza transmission during extreme indoor conditions in a low-resource tropical setting.International journal of biometeorology · 2017Article
- Article
- Timing and periodicity of influenza epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2016Article
- Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?PloS one · 2016Article
- A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation.Scientific reports · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.
objectivesWe aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar.
methodsWe compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period.
resultsOverall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak.
conclusionsThe timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.
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