ArticleInternational journal of ophthalmology2015
Using Markov Chains to predict the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy.
Article in International journal of ophthalmology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Exploring regional air pollution transition dynamics: A multi-state markov model approach.PloS one · 2025Article
- Prognostic factors for the development and progression of proliferative diabetic retinopathy in people with diabetic retinopathy.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Review
- Article
- States Transitions Inference of Postpartum Depression Based on Multi-State Markov Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Reducing Fall-related Revisits for Elderly Diabetes Patients in Emergency Departments: A Transition Flow Model.IEEE robotics and automation letters · 2021Article
- Determining Risk Factors That Affect Progression in Patients with Nonproliferative Diabetic Retinopathy.Journal of ophthalmology · 2021Article
- An Efficacy Predictive Method for Diabetic Ulcers Based on Higher-Order Markov Chain-Set Pair Analysis.Evidence-based complementary and alternative medicine : eCAM · 2020Article
- Causes and Clinical Impact of Loss to Follow-Up in Patients with Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy.Journal of ophthalmology · 2020Article
- Estimating Lifetime Duration of Diabetes by Age and Gender in the Korean Population Using a Markov Model.Journal of Korean medical science · 2019Article
- A Hybrid Approach for Modeling Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Progression.Frontiers in genetics · 2019Article
- Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Does delay in referral of proliferative diabetic retinopathy from the diabetic eye screening programme lead to visual loss?Eye (London, England) · 2016Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
aimTo study the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.
methodsThis was an observational study of 153 cases with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2013. The state of patient was noted at end of each year and transition matrices were developed to model movement between years. Patients who progressed to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) were treated. Markov Chains and Chi-square test were used for statistical analysis.
resultsWe modelled the transition of 153 patients from NPDR to blindness on an annual basis. At the end of year 3, we compared results from the Markov model versus actual data. The results from Chi-square test confirmed that there was statistically no significant difference (P=0.70) which provided assurance that the model was robust to estimate mean sojourn times. The key finding was that a patient entering the system in mild NPDR state is expected to stay in that state for 5y followed by 1.07y in moderate NPDR, be in the severe NPDR state for 1.33y before moving into PDR for roughly 8y. It is therefore expected that such a patient entering the model in a state of mild NPDR will enter blindness after 15.29y.
conclusionPatients stay for long time periods in mild NPDR before transitioning into moderate NPDR. However, they move rapidly from moderate NPDR to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and stay in that state for long periods before transitioning into blindness.
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