Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25652107›Full record

ArticleCancer2015

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis.

Kathryn P Lowry, G Scott Gazelle, Michael E Gilmore, Colden Johanson, Vidit Munshi, Sung Eun Choi, Angela C Tramontano, Chung Yin Kong, Pamela M McMahon

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.8field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 36 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Lung Cancer Screening, Version 3.2018, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology.Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network : JNCCN · 2018
    Guideline
  2. Trial
  3. Review
  4. Natural history models for lung Cancer: A scoping review.Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025
    Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Observational
  8. Lung cancer screening: how do we make it better?Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2020
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. The 2017 Update to the COPD Foundation COPD Pocket Consultant Guide.Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) · 2017
    Review
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Kathryn P LowryDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Massachusetts General Hospital, Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston, Massachusetts.
G Scott Gazelle
Michael E Gilmore
Colden Johanson
Vidit Munshi
Sung Eun Choi
Angela C Tramontano
Chung Yin Kong
Pamela M McMahon
Massachusetts General Hospital · USHarvard University · US

Funding

Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Control PoliciesU01CA152956 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, KONG, CHUNG YIN · 2010 to 2014
$7.4M
MODELING THE POLICY IMPACT OF CIGARETTE AND SMOKELESS USE ON US MORTALITYR01DA036497 · NIDA · GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY · PI LEVY, DAVID THEODORE · 2013 to 2016
$2.5M
A Lung Cancer Policy ModelR01CA097337 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI GAZELLE, G SCOTT · 2004 to 2006
$1.1M
Applications of Multi-Criteria Optimization (AMCO) to Cancer Simulation ModelingK25CA133141 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI KONG, CHUNG YIN · 2009 to 2013
$844k
Developing approaches for modeling genomic and proteomic profiles in lung cancerR00CA126147 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI MCMAHON, PAMELA MARKELL · 2009 to 2011
$718k
NCI NIH HHS K25 CA133141NCI NIH HHS R00 CA126147NCI NIH HHS R01 CA097337NCI NIH HHS R01 CA97337NCI NIH HHS U01 CA152956NCI NIH HHS U01CA152956NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA036497
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds.

methodsWe used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy.

resultsPrograms using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility.

conclusionsCurrent and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population.

Indexed as

Decision Support TechniquesEarly Detection of CancerMass ScreeningPrecision MedicineAgedAged, 80 and overComputer SimulationFemaleHumansLife ExpectancyLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedPrevalencePulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructivePulmonary Ventilationcancer screeningchronic obstructive pulmonary diseasedecision analysislung neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID25652107
PMCPMC4492436
OpenAlexW1564528570

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.