ArticlePloS one2015
The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in women with conisation.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015).BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Under which realistic circumstances is hrHPV self-sampling increasing cervical screening effectiveness in a partly vaccinated population? A modelling study.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Modelling epidemiological and economics processes - the case of cervical cancer.Health economics review · 2025Review
- Strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Greece: a modeling study.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Serum Immunoglobulin G Antibodies to Human Papillomavirus Type 6 L1, E2, E4, E6, and E7 Proteins Among Children Prospectively Followed up for 3 Years.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Shift in harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening in the era of HPV screening and vaccination: a modelling study.BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · 2022Article
- Outcomes of HPV type-specific serostatus do not associate with oral or genital HPV-carriage in non-vaccinated women followed for three years.BMC women's health · 2022Article
- On the Elimination of Infections Related to Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus: An Approach Using a Computational Network Model.Viruses · 2021Article
- The Differential Risk of Cervical Cancer in HPV-Vaccinated and -Unvaccinated Women: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2021Article
- [Trajectory modeling for estimating the trend of human papillomavirus infection status among men who have sex with men].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2018Article
- Article
- Recurring infection with ecologically distinct HPV types can explain high prevalence and diversity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundKnowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections.
methodsWe used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence.
resultsA model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 50% are immune for less than 1 year, whereas 20% exceed 30 years. For HPV-18, up to 12% of the individuals are immune for less than 1 year, and about 50% over 30 years. Almost half of all women will never acquire HPV-16 or HPV-18.
conclusionsAcquired immunity likely plays a major role in HPV epidemiology, but its duration shows substantial variation. Combined with the lifetime risk, this explains to a large extent why many women will never develop cervical cancer.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.