ArticlePLoS currents2014
Early epidemic dynamics of the west african 2014 ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model.
Article in PLoS currents, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 95 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
95 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 230 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review on impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection.Microbiological research · 2023Pooled it
- A systematic review of early modelling studies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Pooled it
- Time From Infection to Disease and Infectiousness for Ebola Virus Disease, a Systematic Review.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Pooled it
- Assessing the impact of misinformation during the spread of infectious diseases.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Theory of infectious disease spillover at an ecological boundary: impacts of seasonality and cross-boundary movement.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Modeling and analysis using piecewise hybrid fractional operator in time scale measure for ebola virus epidemics under Mittag-Leffler kernel.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Prevention in the Era of the Delta Variant.Infectious disease clinics of North America · 2022Review
- Convolution model for COVID-19 rate predictions and health effort levels computation for Saudi Arabia, France, and Canada.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Critical country-level determinants of death rate during Covid-19 pandemic.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2021Article
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- Where Do We Go From Here? A Framework for Using Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Models for Policy Making in Emerging Infectious Diseases.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Article
- Impact of US vaccination strategy on COVID-19 wave dynamics.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The Effect of Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Models.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Strategies for Disease Containment: A Biological-Behavioral-Intervention Computational Informatics Framework.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2021Article
- On the effectiveness of communication strategies as non-pharmaceutical interventions to tackle epidemics.PloS one · 2021Article
- Multi-population stochastic modeling of Ebola in Sierra Leone: Investigation of spatial heterogeneity.PloS one · 2021Article
- CovidSens: a vision on reliable social sensing for COVID-19.Artificial intelligence review · 2021Article
- Influence of isolation measures for patients with mild symptoms on the spread of COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
35 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The 2014 West African Ebola virus outbreak, now more correctly referred to as an epidemic, is the largest ever to occur. As of August 28, 2014, concerns have been raised that control efforts, particularly in Liberia, have been ineffective, as reported case counts continue to increase. Limited data are available on the epidemiology of the outbreak. However, reported cumulative incidence data as well as death counts are available for Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria. We utilized a simple, two parameter mathematical model of epidemic growth and control, to characterize epidemic growth patterns in West Africa, to evaluate the degree to which the epidemic is being controlled, and to assess the potential implications of growth patterns for epidemic size. Models demonstrated good fits to data. Overall basic reproductive number (R0) for the epidemic was estimated to be between 1.6 and 2.0, consistent with prior outbreaks. However, we identified only weak evidence for the occurrence of epidemic control in West Africa as a whole, and essentially no evidence for control in Liberia (though slowing of growth was seen in Guinea and Sierra Leone). It is projected that small reductions in transmission would prevent tens of thousands of future infections. These findings suggest that there is an extraordinary need for improved control measures for the 2014 Ebola epidemic, especially in Liberia, if catastrophe is to be averted.
Identifiers
25642358PMC4169344W2155548535What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.