Calcium intake and bone mineral density as an example of non-linearity and threshold analysis.

unlabelledNon-linearity is a likely phenomenon in bone metabolism, but is often ignored in pertinent epidemiological studies. Using NHANES III data on calcium intake and bone mineral density, the most important non-linear methods are introduced and discussed. The results should motivate researchers to consider non-linearity in this field more frequently.

introductionMany relationships in bone metabolism and homeostasis are likely to follow non-linear patterns. Detailed dose-response analyses allowing for non-linear associations nonetheless remain scarce in this field.

methodsA detailed analysis of NHANES III data on dietary calcium intake and bone mineral density was used to demonstrate the application and some of the challenges of the most important dose-response methods, including LOESS, categorical analysis, fractional polynomials, restricted cubic splines, and segmented regression.

resultsThe spline estimate suggested increasing bone mineral density up to a calcium intake of about 1 g/day and a plateau thereafter. In segmented regression, the break-point marking the beginning of the plateau was placed at an intake of 0.58 (95 % confidence interval, 0.33 to 0.82) g/day. Sensitivity analyses suggested a less curved dose-response in women.

conclusionsKnowing about the possibilities and limitations of non-linear dose-response approaches should encourage researchers to consider these methods more frequently in studies on bone health and disease. The example analysis suggested bone mineral density to reach a plateau slightly below current calcium intake recommendations, with fairly pronounced differences of the dose-response shape by sex and menopausal status.