SynthesisSchizophrenia bulletin2015
Jumping to Conclusions About the Beads Task? A Meta-analysis of Delusional Ideation and Data-Gathering.
Synthesis in Schizophrenia bulletin, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04752449 (Virtual Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis), which is not on this map. Cited by 57 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Virtual Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Mend the Gap: Online User-Led Adjuvant Treatment for Psychosis: A Systematic Review on Recent Findings.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Pooled it
- Reasoning and interpretation cognitive biases related to psychotic characteristics: An umbrella-review.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Association of the Jumping to Conclusions and Evidence Integration Biases With Delusions in Psychosis: A Detailed Meta-analysis.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2017Pooled it
- Psychosis, Delusions and the "Jumping to Conclusions" Reasoning Bias: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2016Pooled it
- Problems in measuring the JTC-bias in patients with psychotic disorders with the fish task: a secondary analysis of a baseline assessment of a randomized controlled trial.BMC psychiatry · 2020Trial
- Theory of mind, emotion recognition, delusions and the quality of the therapeutic relationship in patients with psychosis - a secondary analysis of a randomized-controlled therapy trial.BMC psychiatry · 2020Trial
- Embracing Psychosis: A Cognitive Insight Intervention Improves Personal Narratives and Meaning-Making in Patients With Schizophrenia.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2018Trial
- The Translation and Validation of the 18-Item Davos Assessment of Cognitive Biases Scale in Arabic.Brain and behavior · 2026Article
- Examining sex as a potential moderator of metacognitive training for psychosis efficacy on cognitive insight and jumping to conclusions bias: Evidence from a large-scale harmonized database.Schizophrenia research. Cognition · 2026Article
- Jumping to conclusions and social behavior in individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia.Schizophrenia research. Cognition · 2026Article
- Indecision and recency-weighted evidence integration in non-clinical and clinical settings.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- Weighting Bayesian information in human judgment under uncertainty: a hierarchical theory of cognitive biases.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- Jumping to Conclusions and Facial Emotion Recognition in First-Episode Psychosis: Longitudinal Insights from the Gap Follow-Up Study.Clinical neuropsychiatry · 2025Article
- Active information sampling in health and disease.Neuroscience and biobehavioral reviews · 2025Review
- Paranoia and Data-Gathering Biases in Autism.Journal of autism and developmental disorders · 2025Article
- Misperceiving Momentum: Computational Mechanisms of Biased Striatal Reward Prediction Errors in Bipolar Disorder.Biological psychiatry global open science · 2024Article
- Associations of conservatism and jumping to conclusions biases with aberrant salience and default mode network.Psychiatry and clinical neurosciences · 2024Article
- Impaired belief revision yet intact information seeking in positive schizotypy: A modified task of bias against disconfirmatory evidence.PLOS mental health · 2024Article
- Relationships between cognitive biases, decision-making, and delusions.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The Effect of Situational Experiment Conditions on Hasty Decision Making in the 'Beads Task'.Brain sciences · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
It has been claimed that delusional and delusion-prone individuals have a tendency to gather less data before forming beliefs. Most of the evidence for this "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias comes from studies using the "beads task" data-gathering paradigm. However, the evidence for the JTC bias is mixed. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of individual participant data from 38 clinical and nonclinical samples (n = 2,237) to investigate the relationship between data gathering in the beads task (using the "draws to decision" measure) and delusional ideation (as indexed by the "Peters et al Delusions Inventory"; PDI). We found that delusional ideation is negatively associated with data gathering (r(s) = -0.10, 95% CI [-0.17, -0.03]) and that there is heterogeneity in the estimated effect sizes (Q-stat P = .03, I(2) = 33). Subgroup analysis revealed that the negative association is present when considering the 23 samples (n = 1,754) from the large general population subgroup alone (r(s) = -0.10, 95% CI [-0.18, -0.02]) but not when considering the 8 samples (n = 262) from the small current delusions subgroup alone (r(s) = -0.12, 95% CI [-0.31, 0.07]). These results provide some provisional support for continuum theories of psychosis and cognitive models that implicate the JTC bias in the formation and maintenance of delusions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.