ArticleIranian Red Crescent medical journal2014
Estimating the annual risk of tuberculosis infection and disease in southeast of iran using the bayesian mixture method.
Article in Iranian Red Crescent medical journal, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Seroepidemiologic evidence of Q fever and associated factors among workers in veterinary service laboratory in South Korea.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Defining an intermediate category of tuberculin skin test: A mixture model analysis of two high-risk populations from Kampala, Uganda.PloS one · 2021Article
- Estimating Tuberculin Skin Test Reactions among Children and Teenagers Who Received the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin Vaccination at Birth: A Meta-analysis.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2017Article
- Estimating the prevalence of Positive Tuberculin Skin Test Reactions in General Population and High-risk Groups: A Meta-analysis.International journal of preventive medicine · 2017Review
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis is still a public health concern in Iran. The main challenge in monitoring epidemiological status of tuberculosis is to estimate its incidence accurately.
objectivesWe used a newly developed approach to estimate the incidence of tuberculosis in Sistan, an endemic area in southeast of Iran in 2012-13. PATIENTS AND
methodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted on school children aged 6-9 years. We estimated a required sample size of 6350. Study participants were selected using stratified two-stage cluster sampling method and recruited in a tuberculin skin test survey. Indurations were assessed after 72 hours of the injection and their distributions were plotted. Prevalence and annual risk of tuberculosis infection (ARTI) were estimated using the Bayesian mixture model and some traditional methods. The incidence of active disease was calculated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique.
resultsWe assumed weibull, normal and normal as the best distributions for indurations due to atypical reactions, BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin) reactions and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, respectively. The estimated infection prevalence and ARTI were 3.6% (95%CI: 3.1, 4.1) and 0.48%, respectively. These estimates were lower than those obtained from the traditional methods. The incidence of active tuberculosis was estimated as 107 (87-149) per 100000 population with a CDR of 54% (40%-68%).
conclusionsAlthough the mixture model showed slightly lower estimates than the traditional methods, it seems that this method might generate more accurate results for deep exploration of tuberculosis endemicity. Besides, we found that Sistan is a high endemic area for tuberculosis in Iran with a low case detection rate.
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