ArticleEpidemiology and infection2015
Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.Current environmental health reports · 2016Pooled it
- The Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Cases in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.Globalization and health · 2020Review
- Development of a mechanistic dengue simulation model for Guangzhou.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Assessing temporal causal effects of climate on dengue incidence in Peninsular Malaysia.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.
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