ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2015
Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 37 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Goals, cheers, and gamma-GT: Do football tournaments affect laboratory parameters?Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Unraveling the role of viral interference in disrupting biennial RSV epidemics in northern Stockholm.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Medium-term scenarios of COVID-19 as a function of immune uncertainties and chronic disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Epidemiological impacts of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.PloS one · 2023Article
- Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Review
- TLQP: Early-stage transportation lock-down and quarantine problem.Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies · 2021Article
- The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
- Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- Trajectory of individual immunity and vaccination required for SARS-CoV-2 community immunity: a conceptual investigation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Ecological and Evolutionary Challenges for Wildlife Vaccination.Trends in parasitology · 2020Review
- Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2020Article
- Dynamics in a simple evolutionary-epidemiological model for the evolution of an initial asymptomatic infection stage.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Host demography can alter the dynamics of infectious disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing infections, observations of strong sensitivity to demographic variation have been mechanistically explained through analysis of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that assumes lifelong immunity following recovery from infection. When imperfect immunity is incorporated into this framework via the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model, with individuals regaining full susceptibility following recovery, we show that rapid loss of immunity is predicted to buffer populations against the effects of demographic change. However, this buffering is contrary to the dependence on demography recently observed for partially immunizing infections such as rotavirus and respiratory syncytial virus. We show that this discrepancy arises from a key simplification embedded in the SIR(S) framework, namely that the potential for differential immune responses to repeat exposures is ignored. We explore the minimum additional immunological information that must be included to reflect the range of observed dependencies on demography. We show that including partial protection and lower transmission following primary infection is sufficient to capture more realistic reduced levels of buffering, in addition to changes in epidemic timing, across a range of partially and fully immunizing infections. Furthermore, our results identify key variables in this relationship, including R0.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.