ArticleDemographic research2014
Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.
Article in Demographic research, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Monocyte Phenotypes and Physical Activity in Patients with Carotid Atherosclerosis.Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.Journal of official statistics · 2021Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
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- ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PAST VALUES IN PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FOR MOST COUNTRIES.The annals of applied statistics · 2020Article
- Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records.Demography · 2018Article
- Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Population studies · 2018Article
- Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction.Genus · 2018Article
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- Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.Statistical analysis and data mining · 2016Article
- Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2016Article
- Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes.Population studies · 2016Review
- Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2015Article
- The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty.Foresight (Colchester, Vt.) · 2015Article
- World population stabilization unlikely this century.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2014Article
- Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2014Article
- Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic population projections, for which joint probabilistic projections of future female and male life expectancy at birth are needed.
objectiveWe propose a methodology for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of female and male life expectancy at birth.
methodsWe first project female life expectancy using a one-sex method for probabilistic projection of life expectancy. We then project the gap between female and male life expectancy. We propose an autoregressive model for the gap in a future time period for a particular country, which is a function of female life expectancy and a
resultsWe evaluated our model using out-of-sample projections for the period 1995-2010, and found that our method performed better than several possible alternatives.
conclusionsWe find that the average gap between female and male life expectancy has been increasing for female life expectancy below 75, and decreasing for female life expectancy above 75. Our projections of the gap are lower than the UN's 2008 projections for most countries and so lead to higher projections of male life expectancy.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.