Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25569441›Full record

ArticleGenetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics2015

Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis.

Nora Pashayan, Stephen W Duffy, David E Neal, Freddie C Hamdy, Jenny L Donovan, Richard M Martin, Patricia Harrington, Sara Benlloch, Ali Amin Al Olama, Mitul Shah and 4 more

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Article in Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  12. CanRisk-Prostate: A Comprehensive, Externally Validated Risk Model for the Prediction of Future Prostate Cancer.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2023
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2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Nora PashayanDepartment of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, UK.
Stephen W DuffyCentre for Cancer Prevention, Mathematics and Statistics, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
David E NealCancer Research UK Cambridge Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6033-5086
Freddie C HamdyNuffield Department of Surgery, Oxford John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Headington, Oxford, UK.
Jenny L DonovanSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Richard M MartinSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Patricia HarringtonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Sara BenllochCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Ali Amin Al OlamaCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Mitul ShahDepartment of Oncology, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Zsofia Kote-JaraiDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research & Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Douglas F EastonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Rosalind EelesDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research & Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Paul D PharoahCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8494-732X

Funding

Cancer Research UK 13065Cancer Research UK 15007Cancer Research UK 15064Cancer Research UK 16561Cancer Research UK 16892Cancer Research UK 17528Cancer Research UK A13065Cancer Research UK C11043/A4286Cancer Research UK C18281/A11326Cancer Research UK C18281/A15064Cancer Research UK C18281/A8145Cancer Research UK C490/A10124
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study aimed to quantify the probability of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer by polygenic risk.

methodsWe calculated the polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,012 men aged 50-69 years (9,404 men identified with prostate cancer and 7,608 with no cancer) derived from three UK-based ongoing studies. We derived the probabilities of overdiagnosis by quartiles of polygenic risk considering that the observed prevalence of screen-detected prostate cancer is a combination of underlying incidence, mean sojourn time (MST), test sensitivity, and overdiagnosis.

resultsPolygenic risk quartiles 1 to 4 comprised 9, 18, 25, and 48% of the cases, respectively. For a prostate-specific antigen test sensitivity of 80% and MST of 9 years, 43, 30, 25, and 19% of the prevalent screen-detected cancers in quartiles 1 to 4, respectively, were likely to be overdiagnosed cancers. Overdiagnosis decreased with increasing polygenic risk, with 56% decrease between the lowest and the highest polygenic risk quartiles.

conclusionTargeting screening to men at higher polygenic risk could reduce the problem of overdiagnosis and lead to a better benefit-to-harm balance in screening for prostate cancer.

Indexed as

Early Detection of CancerGenetic TestingMedical OveruseAgedAlgorithmsBiomarkers, TumorGenetic LociHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, GeneticModels, StatisticalNeoplasm GradingNeoplasm StagingProstatic NeoplasmsRiskBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID25569441
PMCPMC4430305

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.