ArticlePLoS pathogens2015
Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States.
Article in PLoS pathogens, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 100 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
100 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Global meta-analysis of short-term associations between ambient temperature and pathogen-specific respiratory infections, 2004 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Pooled it
- Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis.BMC medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Epidemiology and burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Italian adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.The Science of the total environment · 2020Pooled it
- Leveraging perturbations to infer the population dynamics of human rhinovirus and interaction of influenza A virus.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Human Metapneumovirus and Potential Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Interventions in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Genomic surveillance of a deeply sampled local population reveals age-specific drivers of RSV transmission.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Enterovirus D68 in United States wastewater: a longitudinal surveillance study integrating climatic, demographic, and clinical data.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Leveraging perturbations to infer the population dynamics of human rhinovirus and interaction of influenza A virus.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Article
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
- The seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its associations with meteorological factors in Hong Kong, 2014-2023.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Urban contact patterns shape respiratory syncytial virus epidemics with implications for vaccination.Science advances · 2025Article
- Pediatric Antibiotic Use Associated With Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Influenza in the United States, 2008-2018.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
40 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are known to occur in wintertime in temperate countries including the United States, but there is a limited understanding of the importance of climatic drivers in determining the seasonality of RSV. In the United States, RSV activity is highly spatially structured, with seasonal peaks beginning in Florida in November through December and ending in the upper Midwest in February-March, and prolonged disease activity in the southeastern US. Using data on both age-specific hospitalizations and laboratory reports of RSV in the US, and employing a combination of statistical and mechanistic epidemic modeling, we examined the association between environmental variables and state-specific measures of RSV seasonality. Temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were significantly associated with the timing of RSV activity across states in univariate exploratory analyses. The amplitude and timing of seasonality in the transmission rate was significantly correlated with seasonal fluctuations in PET, and negatively correlated with mean vapor pressure, minimum temperature, and precipitation. States with low mean vapor pressure and the largest seasonal variation in PET tended to experience biennial patterns of RSV activity, with alternating years of "early-big" and "late-small" epidemics. Our model for the transmission dynamics of RSV was able to replicate these biennial transitions at higher amplitudes of seasonality in the transmission rate. This successfully connects environmental drivers to the epidemic dynamics of RSV; however, it does not fully explain why RSV activity begins in Florida, one of the warmest states, when RSV is a winter-seasonal pathogen. Understanding and predicting the seasonality of RSV is essential in determining the optimal timing of immunoprophylaxis.
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