Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25551377›Full record

SynthesisPloS one2014

A case study of discordant overlapping meta-analyses: vitamin d supplements and fracture.

Mark J Bolland, Andrew Grey

Open access · goldAbstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
6.6field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 59 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. The Lebanese GRADE-based vitamin D guidelines: a paradigm for the MENA region.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
    Guideline
  2. Pooled it
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  7. A randomised controlled trial of low-dose aspirin for the prevention of fractures in healthy older people: protocol for the ASPREE-Fracture substudy.Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention · 2016
    Trial
  8. Review
  9. Article
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  11. Article
  12. A meta-review of systematic reviews of lifestyle interventions for reducing gestational weight gain in women with overweight or obesity.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2021
    Review
  13. Vitamin D status and complications, readmissions, and mortality after hip fracture.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2021
    Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Errors in NOF meta-analyses of calcium and vitamin D supplements.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2016
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Mark J BollandDepartment of Medicine, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92 019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
Andrew GreyDepartment of Medicine, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92 019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
University of Auckland · NZ

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOverlapping meta-analyses on the same topic are now very common, and discordant results often occur. To explore why discordant results arise, we examined a common topic for overlapping meta-analyses- vitamin D supplements and fracture. METHODS AND

findingsWe identified 24 meta-analyses of vitamin D (with or without calcium) and fracture in a PubMed search in October 2013, and analysed a sample of 7 meta-analyses in the highest ranking general medicine journals. We used the AMSTAR tool to assess the quality of the meta-analyses, and compared their methodologies, analytic techniques and results. Applying the AMSTAR tool suggested the meta-analyses were generally of high quality. Despite this, there were important differences in trial selection, data extraction, and analytical methods that were only apparent after detailed assessment. 25 trials were included in at least one meta-analysis. Four meta-analyses included all eligible trials according to the stated inclusion and exclusion criteria, but the other 3 meta-analyses "missed" between 3 and 8 trials, and 2 meta-analyses included apparently ineligible trials. The relative risks used for individual trials differed between meta-analyses for total fracture in 10 of 15 trials, and for hip fracture in 6 of 12 trials, because of different outcome definitions and analytic approaches. The majority of differences (11/16) led to more favourable estimates of vitamin D efficacy compared to estimates derived from unadjusted intention-to-treat analyses using all randomised participants. The conclusions of the meta-analyses were discordant, ranging from strong statements that vitamin D prevents fractures to equally strong statements that vitamin D without calcium does not prevent fractures.

conclusionsSubstantial differences in trial selection, outcome definition and analytic methods between overlapping meta-analyses led to discordant estimates of the efficacy of vitamin D for fracture prevention. Strategies for conducting and reporting overlapping meta-analyses are required, to improve their accuracy and transparency.

Indexed as

Dietary SupplementsAgedData Interpretation, StatisticalFemaleFractures, BoneHumansMaleMeta-Analysis as TopicMiddle AgedNutrition TherapyResearch DesignVitamin DVitamin D

Identifiers

PMID25551377
PMCPMC4281138
OpenAlexW1996793149

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.