ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2014
Developing a heatwave early warning system for Sweden: evaluating sensitivity of different epidemiological modelling approaches to forecast temperatures.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A Systematic Review of Heat Health Warning Systems: Enhancing the Framework Towards Effective Health Outcomes.Current environmental health reports · 2025Pooled it
- Effectiveness of National Weather Service heat alerts in preventing mortality in 20 US cities.Environment international · 2018Pooled it
- Association of Temperature Thresholds with Heat Illness- and Cardiorespiratory-Related Emergency Visits during Summer Months in Alaska.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Heat wave-related mortality in Sweden: A case-crossover study investigating effect modification by neighbourhood deprivation.Scandinavian journal of public health · 2020Article
- Advancing our Understanding of Heat Wave Criteria and Associated Health Impacts to Improve Heat Wave Alerts in Developing Country Settings.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015-a comparison of selected thermal indices.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Article
- Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland.International journal of biometeorology · 2018Article
- Article
- A Difference-in-Differences Approach to Assess the Effect of a Heat Action Plan on Heat-Related Mortality, and Differences in Effectiveness According to Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Status (Montreal, Quebec).Environmental health perspectives · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Over the last two decades a number of heatwaves have brought the need for heatwave early warning systems (HEWS) to the attention of many European governments. The HEWS in Europe are operating under the assumption that there is a high correlation between observed and forecasted temperatures. We investigated the sensitivity of different temperature mortality relationships when using forecast temperatures. We modelled mortality in Stockholm using observed temperatures and made predictions using forecast temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts to assess the sensitivity. We found that the forecast will alter the expected future risk differently for different temperature mortality relationships. The more complex models seemed more sensitive to inaccurate forecasts. Despite the difference between models, there was a high agreement between models when identifying risk-days. We find that considerations of the accuracy in temperature forecasts should be part of the design of a HEWS. Currently operating HEWS do evaluate their predictive performance; this information should also be part of the evaluation of the epidemiological models that are the foundation in the HEWS. The most accurate description of the relationship between high temperature and mortality might not be the most suitable or practical when incorporated into a HEWS.
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Registered trials
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