ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014
Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Major bat-borne zoonotic viral epidemics in Asia and Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Veterinary medicine and science · 2022Pooled it
- Insights from Financial Economics to Value Healthcare Investments that Reduce System-Level Risks: Example of Disease Elimination and Eradication.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Review
- Viral emergence and pandemic preparedness in a One Health framework.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Perceptions and public health risks of the bat-human interface in households from fragmented rural landscapes in southern Chile.PloS one · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review of Machine Learning Applications Across Epidemiological Stages of Zoonotic Disease.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Review
- Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025Article
- From isolation to revival: trade recovery amid global health crises.Globalization and health · 2024Article
- Emergence of SARS and COVID-19 and preparedness for the next emerging disease X.Frontiers of medicine · 2024Review
- Exploring Disease Management and Control through Pathogen Diagnostics and One Health Initiative: A Concise Review.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Article
- A new multiplexed magnetic capture-Droplet digital PCR tool for monitoring wildlife population health and pathogen surveillance.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Characterising Biosecurity Initiatives Globally to Support the Development of a Progressive Management Pathway for Terrestrial Animals: A Scoping Review.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- The interfaces between One Health and Global Health: A scoping review.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Article
- Pandemic origins and a One Health approach to preparedness and prevention: Solutions based on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Review
- Leveraging the therapeutic, biological, and self-assembling potential of peptides for the treatment of viral infections.Journal of controlled release : official journal of the Controlled Release Society · 2022Review
- A socio-ecological critique on India's local health traditions amidst rising incidence of global pandemics.Journal of herbal medicine · 2022Review
- Combining hunting and intensive carcass removal to eradicate African swine fever from wild boar populations.Preventive veterinary medicine · 2022Article
- Challenges of integrating economics into epidemiological analysis of and policy responses to emerging infectious diseases.Epidemics · 2022Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.