Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25511307›Full record

ReviewAnnals of epidemiology2015

Estimating population attributable fractions to quantify the health burden of obesity.

Katherine M Flegal, Orestis A Panagiotou, Barry I Graubard

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Annals of epidemiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 77 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
77citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

77 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Trial
  6. Trial
  7. Article
  8. The Economic Cost of Obesity: A Cost-of-Illness Study in Greece.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Segregation and Obesity: A Systematic Review.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2025
    Review
  12. Article
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  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. The Burden of Obesity in Saudi Arabia: A Real-World Cost-of-Illness Study.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review

17 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Katherine M FlegalCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. Electronic address: kmf2@cdc.gov.
Orestis A PanagiotouDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD.
Barry I GraubardDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD.

Funding

Methods for Epidemiology StudiesZIACP010181 · NCI · DIVISION OF CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GENETICS · PI ALBERT, PAUL · 2009 to 2025
$34.8M
Intramural NIH HHS Z99 CA999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeObesity is a highly prevalent condition in the United States and elsewhere and is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Here, we discuss some issues involved in quantifying the health burden of obesity using population attributable fraction (PAF) estimates and provide examples.

methodsWe searched PubMed for articles reporting attributable fraction estimates for obesity. We reviewed eligible articles to identify methodological concerns and tabulated illustrative examples of PAF estimates for obesity relative to cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality.

resultsThere is considerable variability among studies regarding the methods used for PAF calculation and the selection of appropriate counterfactuals. The reported estimates ranged from 5% to 15% for all-cause mortality, -0.2% to 8% for all-cancer incidence, 7% to 44% for cardiovascular disease incidence, and 3% to 83% for diabetes incidence.

conclusionsTo evaluate a given estimate, it is important to consider whether the exposure and outcome were defined similarly for the PAF and for the relative risks, whether the relative risks were suitable for the population at hand, and whether PAF was calculated using correct methods. Strong causal assumptions are not necessarily warranted. In general, PAFs for obesity may be best considered as indicators of association.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessPopulation SurveillanceRiskBody Mass IndexBody WeightEpidemiologic MethodsHumansIncidenceMaleObesityPrevalenceRisk FactorsUnited StatesBody mass indexBody weightEpidemiologic methodsObesityRisk

Identifiers

PMID25511307
PMCPMC4383168

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.