SynthesisBMC infectious diseases2014
Natural attack rate of influenza in unvaccinated children and adults: a meta-regression analysis.
Synthesis in BMC infectious diseases, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
46 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Heterogeneous estimates of influenza virus types A and B in the elderly: Results of a meta-regression analysis.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Pooled it
- A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VIR-2482 in Healthy Adults for Prevention of Influenza A Illness (PENINSULA).Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Trial
- A noninferiority randomized open-label pilot study of 3- versus 7-day influenza postexposure prophylaxis with oseltamivir in hospitalized children.Scientific reports · 2024Trial
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission among children and staff in daycare centres during a nationwide lockdown in France: a cross-sectional, multicentre, seroprevalence study.The Lancet. Child & adolescent health · 2021Trial
- Epidemiology and burden of influenza in healthy children aged 6 to 35 months: analysis of data from the placebo arm of a phase III efficacy trial.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Trial
- Budget impact analysis of implementing point-of-care molecular testing for influenza A&B and RSV in Saudi older adult patients across hospital and home-care settings.Health economics review · 2026Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of endemic respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- MAJOR LIVESTOCK-ASSOCIATED ZOONOSES IN MONGOLIA: AN OVERVIEW.Zoonoses (Shannon, Ireland) · 2025Article
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.PLoS biology · 2024Article
- Wastewater Surveillance to Confirm Differences in Influenza A Infection between Michigan, USA, and Ontario, Canada, September 2022-March 2023.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Article
- Platelet Abnormalities in Children with Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Ferret model to mimic the sequential exposure of humans to historical H3N2 influenza viruses.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Cell Versus Egg-Based Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in Children and Adults in Argentina.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Epidemiology of repeat influenza infection in Queensland, Australia, 2005-2017.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Low Levels of Procalcitonin Are Related to Decreased Antibiotic Use in Children Hospitalized Due to Influenza.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe natural (i.e. unvaccinated population) attack rate of an infectious disease is an important parameter required for understanding disease transmission. As such, it is an input parameter in infectious disease mathematical models. Influenza is an infectious disease that poses a major health concern worldwide and the natural attack rate of this disease is crucial in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and informing surveillance program design. We estimated age-stratified, strain-specific natural attack rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in unvaccinated individuals.
methodsUtilizing an existing systematic review, we calculated the attack rates in the trial placebo arms using a random effects model and a meta-regression analysis (GSK study identifier: 117102).
resultsThis post-hoc analysis included 34 RCTs (Randomized Control Trials) contributing to 47 influenza seasons from 1970 to 2009. Meta-regression analyses showed that age and type of influenza were important covariates. The attack rates (95% CI (Confidence Interval)) in adults for all influenza, type A and type B were 3.50% (2.30%, 4.60%), 2.32% (1.47%, 3.17%) and 0.59% (0.28%, 0.91%) respectively. For children, they were 15.20% (11.40%, 18.90%), 12.27% (8.56%, 15.97%) and 5.50% (3.49%, 7.51%) respectively.
conclusionsThis analysis demonstrated that unvaccinated children have considerably higher exposure risk than adults and influenza A can cause more disease than influenza B. Moreover, a higher ratio of influenza B:A in children than adults was observed. This study provides a new, stratified and up to-date natural attack rates that can be used in influenza infectious disease models and are consistent with previous published work in the field.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.