ArticleNature2014
Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism.
Article in Nature, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 83 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
83 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Towards evidence-based conservation of subterranean ecosystems.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2022Pooled it
- Global land-use change rivals climate change in driving projected diversity shifts of terrestrial vertebrates.iScience · 2026Article
- Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Projected human land-use pressures and natural habitat conversion risk within global terrestrial protected areas.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Ability of new protected areas to counteract losses from downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2025Article
- Investigating the biodiversity conservation capability of technological innovation and FinTech.Heliyon · 2024Article
- The socioeconomic and environmental niche of protected areas reveals global conservation gaps and opportunities.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of alpine land cover in Tianshan world natural heritage sites.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Inferring the extinction risk of marine fish to inform global conservation priorities.PLoS biology · 2024Article
- Article
- Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- 30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Avoiding an unjust transition to sustainability: An equity metric for spatial conservation planning.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- A conservation planning strategy applied to the evolutionary history of the mantellid frogs of Madagascar.npj biodiversity · 2023Article
- Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau.iScience · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Coupled Coordination Degree of Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand in Chinese National Nature Reserves.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Human Expansion-Induced Biodiversity Crisis over Asia from 2000 to 2020.Research (Washington, D.C.) · 2023Article
- Reply to Pérez-García et al.: Perfect is the enemy of good.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
23 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering current and projected land-use pressures.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.