ArticleNicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco2015
Predictive Validity of the Expanded Susceptibility to Smoke Index.
Article in Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05554120 (The Next Step in Smoking Prevention), which is not on this map. Cited by 100 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
The Next Step in Smoking Prevention: the Reduction of Tobacco Retail Outlets, a Comprehensive Policy Evaluation
Who cites it
100 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of vaping prevention campaign messages on cognitive and behaviorally proximal outcomes among adolescents and young adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Pooled it
- Understanding Potential Mechanisms of Vaping Prevention Messages: A Mediation Analysis of the Real Cost Campaign Advertisements.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2025Trial
- How Do Behavioral Framing, Linguistic Certainty, and Target Specification Impact Responses to Vaping Prevention Messages?Journal of health communication · 2024Trial
- Examining the Longitudinal Relationship Between Perceived and Actual Message Effectiveness: A Randomized Trial.Health communication · 2024Trial
- Responses to pictorial versus text-only cigarillo warnings among a nationally representative sample of US young adults.Tobacco control · 2023Trial
- The Impact of The Real Cost Vaping and Smoking Ads across Tobacco Products.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Trial
- Evidence of Youth-Appealing Cigarette Advertising Tactics from a Randomized, Controlled Experiment.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Trial
- Impact of Vaping Prevention Advertisements on US Adolescents: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2022Trial
- Identifying Promising Themes for Adolescent Vaping Warnings: A National Experiment.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Trial
- Tobacco Advertising Features That May Contribute to Product Appeal Among US Adolescents and Young Adults.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021Trial
- Optimizing Warnings on E-Cigarette Advertisements.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2020Trial
- A Randomized Trial of the Effect of Youth Appealing E-Cigarette Advertising on Susceptibility to Use E-Cigarettes Among Youth.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2018Trial
- Development and initial testing of the brief adolescent smoking curiosity scale (ASCOS).Addictive behaviors · 2018Trial
- Characterizing Young Adults' Susceptibility to Waterpipe Tobacco Use and Their Reactions to Messages About Product Harms and Addictiveness.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2017Trial
- Untangling relationships between cognitive development and child and adolescent mental health: Findings from the ABCD Study.Developmental cognitive neuroscience · 2026Review
- Development of a school program for vaping and smoking prevention and protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial in fifth grade students.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- The feasibility and acceptability of Live Free From E-Cigarettes (LIFFE): A web-based vaping intervention and smoking prevention program for young adults.Psychology of addictive behaviors : journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors · 2026Article
- EVALI, anti-vaping advertising, quit attempts, and susceptibility: insights into the 2019 inflection point for U.S. adolescent vaping from California data.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Ethnic Discrimination's Role on Increased Substance Susceptibility and Use Among U.S. Youth.American journal of preventive medicine · 2025Article
- Message Evaluation Equivalence in Pre Versus Postproduction Tobacco Education Ads.American journal of preventive medicine · 2025Article
40 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe susceptibility to smoking index can be improved as it only identifies one third of future adult smokers. Adding curiosity to this index may increase the identification of future smokers and improve the identification of effective prevention messages.
methodsAnalyses used data from the California Longitudinal Study of Smoking Transitions in Youth, for whom tobacco use behaviors, attitudes, and beliefs were assessed at 3 time points from age 12 through early adulthood. Logistic regressions were used to evaluate whether baseline curiosity about smoking was predictive of smoking during the 6-year follow-up period and whether curiosity about smoking provided evidence of incremental validity over existing measures of susceptibility to smoking.
resultsCompared to those who were classified as definitely not curious about smoking, teens who were classified as probably not curious (OR adj = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.28-2.81) and those classified as definitely curious (OR adj = 2.38, 95% CI= 1.49-3.79) had an increase in the odds of becoming a young adult smoker. Adding curiosity to the original susceptibility to smoking index increased the sensitivity of the enhanced susceptibility index to 78.9% compared to 62.2% identified by the original susceptibility index. However, a loss of specificity meant there was no improvement in the positive predictive value.
conclusionsThe enhanced susceptibility index significantly improves identification of teens at risk for becoming young adult smokers. Thus, this enhanced index is preferred for identifying and testing potentially effective prevention messages.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.