ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2015
Formalizing the role of agent-based modeling in causal inference and epidemiology.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 99 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
99 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 193 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of Simulation Models to Track and Address the Opioid Crisis.Epidemiologic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Systems science and systems thinking for public health: a systematic review of the field.BMJ open · 2015Pooled it
- Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Trial
- Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Trial
- Integrating mathematical modelling and artificial intelligence to combat emerging viral syndemics: A systematic review.New microbes and new infections · 2026Review
- Advancing systems thinking in implementation science: An epidemiologic perspective.Annals of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Behavioral Dynamics of AI Trust and Health Care Delays Among Adults: Integrated Cross-Sectional Survey and Agent-Based Modeling Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Exploring socio-economic dimensions in HIV research: a comprehensive bibliometric analysis (1992-2024).Global health action · 2025Review
- The role of epidemiologists in addressing the public health consequences of the United States criminal legal system.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- An individual-based dynamic model to assess interventions to mitigate opioid overdose risk.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
- Evolutionary Invasion Analysis of Modern Epidemics Highlights the Context-Dependence of Virulence Evolution.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Making evidence go further: Advancing synergy between agent-based modeling and randomized control trials.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- The impacts of gradually terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis.Fundamental research · 2024Article
- The Usefulness of Web-Based Communication Data for Social Network Health Interventions: Agent-Based Modeling Study.JMIR pediatrics and parenting · 2023Article
- A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Review
- Evaluating Policies to Decrease the Risk of Introducing SARS-CoV-2 Infections to Nursing Home Facilities.Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society · 2023Article
- Data-rich modeling helps answer increasingly complex questions on variant and disease interactions: Comment on "Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review" by Aguiar et al.Physics of life reviews · 2023Article
- Structural racism theory, measurement, and methods: A scoping review.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
39 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.