ArticlePloS one2014
Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Bayesian phylodynamics reveals the transmission dynamics of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus at the human-live bird market interface in China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Optimizing the early detection of low pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 virus in live bird markets.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Identifying Risk Factors Of A(H7N9) Outbreak by Wavelet Analysis and Generalized Estimating Equation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2018Article
- Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2017Article
- Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis.PloS one · 2017Article
- Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Seasonality of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus in China-Fitting Simple Epidemic Models to Human Cases.PloS one · 2016Article
- The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Review
- Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2015Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting in 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild and domestic) birds as well as from birds to human, to infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such as basic reproduction number for bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate and turning points of the epidemics, for the epidemic via human H7N9 case onset data and to acquire useful information regarding the bird-to-human transmission dynamics. Estimated basic reproduction number for infections among birds is 4.10 and the mean daily number of human infections per infected bird is 3.16*10-5 [3.08*10-5, 3.23*10-5]. The turning point of 2013 H7N9 epidemic is pinpointed at April 16 for bird infections and at April 9 for bird-to-human transmissions. Our result reveals very low level of bird-to-human infections, thus indicating minimal risk of widespread bird-to-human infections of H7N9 virus during the outbreak. Moreover, the turning point of the human epidemic, pinpointed at shortly after the implementation of full-scale control and intervention measures initiated in early April, further highlights the impact of timely actions on ending the outbreak. This is the first study where both the bird and human components of an avian influenza epidemic can be quantified using only the human case data.
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