ArticleInternational journal of public health2015
Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach.
Article in International journal of public health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- The Convergent Immunopathogenesis of Cigarette Smoke Exposure: From Oxidative Stress to Epigenetic Reprogramming in Chronic Disease.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
- The relationship between sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, and diet quality with diabetes risk in overweight and obese Turkish adults.BMC public health · 2025Observational
- The Role of Illness Representations and Metacognitive Beliefs in Mood in People with Type 2 Diabetes: A study from the COVID-19 Period.Turk psikiyatri dergisi = Turkish journal of psychiatry · 2025Article
- Understanding the determinants of self-reported asthma in Turkey: insights from national data on individual, lifestyle, socioeconomic, and healthcare access factors.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Article
- Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Associated patient demographic characteristics and disease-related self-care behaviors with diabetes: a mediation model.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2021Article
- Correlation of Mortality Burdens of Cerebrovascular Disease and Diabetes Mellitus with Domestic Consumption of Soya and Palm Oils.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Review
- Article
- Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in Korean Adults for the Year 2030 Using Risk Factors Identified from National Data.Diabetes & metabolism journal · 2019Article
- Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Algorithm.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2019Article
- Factors affecting pregnancy weight gain and relationships with maternal/fetal outcomes in Turkey.Saudi medical journal · 2017Article
- Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Increasing Influenza Vaccination Coverage in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes in Turkey.PloS one · 2016Article
- Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.BMC public health · 2015Article
- Effect of ramadan fasting on glycemic control and other essential variables in diabetic patients.Annals of African medicineArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence.
methodsWe developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach.
resultsT2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025.
conclusionsDiabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.