Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25468167›Full record

ReviewLancet (London, England)2015

Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses.

David E Bloom, Somnath Chatterji, Paul Kowal, Peter Lloyd-Sherlock, Martin McKee, Bernd Rechel, Larry Rosenberg, James P Smith

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Lancet (London, England), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 227 papers, 11 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
227citing papers in PubMed, 11 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

227 citing papers in PubMed, 11 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Perceived Social Norms Guide Health Care Decisions for Oneself and Others: A Cross-Sectional Experiment in a US Online Panel.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
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  17. Population Priorities for Successful Aging: A Randomized Vignette Experiment.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2020
    Trial
  18. Combining volunteers and primary care teamwork to support health goals and needs of older adults: a pragmatic randomized controlled trial.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2019
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167 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

David E BloomHarvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu.
Somnath ChatterjiWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Paul KowalWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Peter Lloyd-SherlockUniversity of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Martin McKeeEuropean Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Bernd RechelEuropean Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Larry RosenbergHarvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
James P SmithRand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA.

Funding

The Center for the Global Demography of AgingP30AG024409 · NIA · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI BLOOM, DAVID E · 2004 to 2019
$7.9M
Towards improving the measurement of health and disability trends, the compressioR01AG034479 · NIA · WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION · PI CHATTERJI, SOMNATH · 2010 to 2014
$5.3M
Housing Price Risk, Home Ownership, and WealthR37AG025529 · NIA · RAND CORPORATION · PI SMITH, JAMES PATRICK · 2005 to 2015
$3.1M
Harmonizing health outcomes and determinants across longitudinal studies on agingR21AG034263 · NIA · WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION · PI CHATTERJI, SOMNATH, KOWAL, PAUL R. · 2011 to 2012
$255k
NCI NIH HHS YA1323-08-CN-0020NIA NIH HHS 2P30AG024409NIA NIH HHS P30 AG024409NIA NIH HHS R01 AG034479NIA NIH HHS R01-AG034479NIA NIH HHS R21 AG034263NIA NIH HHS R21-AG034263NIA NIH HHS R37 AG025529NIA NIH HHS R37AG025529NIA NIH HHS Y1-AG-1005-0PHS HHS OGHA04034785World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Between now and 2030, every country will experience population ageing-a trend that is both pronounced and historically unprecedented. Over the past six decades, countries of the world had experienced only a slight increase in the share of people aged 60 years and older, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population-a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people. Evidence suggests that cohorts entering older age now are healthier than previous ones. However, progress has been very uneven, as indicated by the wide gaps in population health (measured by life expectancy) between the worst (Sierra Leone) and best (Japan) performing countries, now standing at a difference of 36 years for life expectancy at birth and 15 years for life expectancy at age 60 years. Population ageing poses challenges for countries' economies, and the health of older populations is of concern. Older people have greater health and long-term care needs than younger people, leading to increased expenditure. They are also less likely to work if they are unhealthy, and could impose an economic burden on families and society. Like everyone else, older people need both physical and economic security, but the burden of providing these securities will be falling on a smaller portion of the population. Pension systems will be stressed and will need reassessment along with retirement policies. Health systems, which have not in the past been oriented toward the myriad health problems and long-term care needs of older people and have not sufficiently emphasised disease prevention, can respond in different ways to the new demographic reality and the associated changes in population health. Along with behavioural adaptations by individuals and businesses, the nature of such policy responses will establish whether population ageing will lead to major macroeconomic difficulties.

Indexed as

EconomicsGlobal HealthHealth ExpendituresPopulation DynamicsAgedAged, 80 and overHealth Services for the AgedHealth Services Needs and DemandHumansLife ExpectancyLong-Term Care

Identifiers

PMID25468167
PMCPMC4469267

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.