Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25458732›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2015

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak.

Isaac I Bogoch, Maria I Creatore, Martin S Cetron, John S Brownstein, Nicki Pesik, Jennifer Miniota, Theresa Tam, Wei Hu, Adriano Nicolucci, Saad Ahmed and 8 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 106 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
106citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
16.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

106 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 243 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019
    Pooled it
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  7. Article
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  9. The risk of global Ebola virus spread is low: epidemiology of Ebola disease cases outside Africa, 1976 to May 2026.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
    Article
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  13. Airline strategies during the pandemic: What worked?Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice · 2023
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46 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 9 institutions in 4 countries.

Isaac I BogochDepartment of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Maria I CreatoreCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Martin S CetronDivision of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
John S BrownsteinCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital Boston, MA, USA.
Nicki PesikQuarantine and Border Health Services Branch, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jennifer MiniotaCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Theresa TamHealth Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Wei HuCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Adriano NicolucciCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Saad AhmedSchulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
James W YoonCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Isha BerryCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Simon I HayFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Aranka AnemaChildren's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Andrew J TatemFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
Derek MacFaddenDepartment of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Matthew GermanCentre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Kamran KhanDepartment of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada. Electronic address: khank@smh.ca.
St. Michael's Hospital · CACenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USFogarty International Center · USUniversity of Toronto · CACenter for Systems Biology · USPublic Health Agency of Canada · CAUniversity Health Network · CAUniversity of British Columbia · CAWestern University · CA

Funding

A Platform for Modeling the Global Impact of Climate Change on Infectious DiseaseR01LM010812 · NLM · BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL · PI BROWNSTEIN, JOHN S. · 2010 to 2015
$2.5M
CIHRNLM NIH HHS R01 LM010812NLM NIH HHS R01LM010812Wellcome Trust 095066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports.

methodsWe analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.

findingsBased on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2.8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91,547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.

interpretationDecision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively.

fundingCanadian Institutes of Health Research.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksModels, StatisticalAir TravelEbolavirusGuineaHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansLiberiaMass ScreeningPublic HealthRisk FactorsSierra Leone

Identifiers

PMID25458732
PMCPMC4286618
OpenAlexW2110504620

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.