ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2014
Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes in Singapore using a demographic epidemiological model of Singapore.
Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 5 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 92 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
The "Metabolically-obese Normal-weight" Phenotype in Two Asian Ethnic Groups and Its Reversal by Calorie Restriction
Effects of Progressive Negative Energy Balance Induced by Diet or Exercise on Glucose Tolerance, Insulin Sensitivity, and Beta-cell Function
Effects of Multidisciplinary Intensive Targeted Care in Improving Diabetes Outcomes: a Randomized Controlled Pilot Study - the Integrated Diabetes Education, Awareness and Lifestyle Modification in Singapore (IDEALS) Program
Incidence of Undiagnosed and Poorly Controlled Diabetes Mellitus Among Surgical Patients and Its Association With Perioperative Outcomes: a Single-centre Prospective Cohort Study
Preventing Diabetes: Impact of an EMR-Based Intervention for Enhanced Pre-Diabetes Management in Primary Care
Who cites it
92 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The diabetic shoulder: association between diabetes mellitus and adhesive capsulitis - a systematic review and meta-analysis.International orthopaedics · 2026Pooled it
- Association of haptoglobin phenotype with incident acute myocardial infarction in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2019Pooled it
- Trial
- Short-term trajectories of use of a caloric-monitoring mobile phone app among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in a primary care setting.Journal of medical Internet research · 2015Trial
- Quality of life item banks for type 2 diabetes: psychometric evaluation and computerized adaptive testing simulations.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2026Article
- Projections of diabetes mellitus in Japan through 2040: a bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of the national health and nutrition survey population.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Feasibility of the LvL UP digital lifestyle coaching intervention designed to prevent non-communicable diseases and common mental disorders.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Transverse Tibial Transport: Surgical Technique and Insights From First International Case Series.International wound journal · 2025Article
- Retrospective analysis of value-driven outcomes of diabetic foot ulcer in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Investigating the Metabolic Benefits of Magnetic Mitohormesis in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Qualitative study on the perceived enablers and barriers to interprofessional education in primary care in Singapore.BMC primary care · 2025Article
- Outcome evaluation and cost-effectiveness analysis for an integrated multidisciplinary diabetic limb salvage program: a combined observational and simulation study.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2025Observational
- Article
- Foot care behaviours and associated factors among patients with type 2 diabetes: A cross-sectional study.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Integrated patient-centred care for type 2 diabetes in Singapore Primary Care Networks: a mixed-methods study.BMJ open · 2024Article
- An Observational Clinical Trial Examining the Effect of Topical Oxygen Therapy (NatroxThe international journal of lower extremity wounds · 2024Observational
- Extending the diabetic retinopathy screening intervals in Singapore: methodology and preliminary findings of a cohort study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Platform for the interdisciplinary study of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurovascular diseases (PICMAN) protocol.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Empowering Foot Care Literacy Among People Living With Diabetes and Their Carers With an mHealth App: Protocol for a Feasibility Study.JMIR research protocols · 2023Article
- A Diabetes Education App for People Living With Type 2 Diabetes: Co-Design Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
32 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveSingapore is a microcosm of Asia as a whole, and its rapidly ageing, increasingly sedentary population heralds the chronic health problems other Asian countries are starting to face and will likely face in the decades ahead. Forecasting the changing burden of chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes in Singapore is vital to plan the resources needed and motivate preventive efforts.
methodsThis paper describes an individual-level simulation model that uses evidence synthesis from multiple data streams-national statistics, national health surveys, and four cohort studies, and known risk factors-aging, obesity, ethnicity, and genetics-to forecast the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Singapore. This comprises submodels for mortality, fertility, migration, body mass index trajectories, genetics, and workforce participation, parameterized using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and permits forecasts by ethnicity and employment status.
resultsWe forecast that the obesity prevalence will quadruple from 4.3% in 1990 to 15.9% in 2050, while the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) among Singapore adults aged 18-69 will double from 7.3% in 1990 to 15% in 2050, that ethnic Indians and Malays will bear a disproportionate burden compared with the Chinese majority, and that the number of patients with diabetes in the workforce will grow markedly.
conclusionsIf the recent rise in obesity prevalence continues, the lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in Singapore will be one in two by 2050 with concomitant implications for greater healthcare expenditure, productivity losses, and the targeting of health promotion programmes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.