Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25446299›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of medicine2015

Decade-long trends in atrial fibrillation incidence and survival: a community study.

Alanna M Chamberlain, Bernard J Gersh, Alvaro Alonso, Lin Y Chen, Cecilia Berardi, Sheila M Manemann, Jill M Killian, Susan A Weston, Véronique L Roger

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of medicine, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05130268 (Pragmatic Randomized Clinical Trial of Early Dronedarone Versus Usual Care to Change and Improve Outcomes in Persons With First-Detected Atrial Fibrillation), which is not on this map. Cited by 57 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
57citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05130268 phase4completednot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Pragmatic Randomized Clinical Trial of Early Dronedarone Versus Usual Care to Change and Improve Outcomes in Persons With First-Detected Atrial Fibrillation

TypeinterventionalSponsorAmerican Heart AssociationRan2021 to 2024Enrolled339ConditionsAtrial FibrillationArmsDronedarone
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

57 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. The Prognostic Significance of Cardiac Structure and Function in Atrial Fibrillation: The ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Echocardiographic Substudy.Journal of the American Society of Echocardiography : official publication of the American Society of Echocardiography · 2016
    Trial
  3. Review
  4. Validating ICD code case definitions for condition case ascertainment in multimorbidity measurement: a retrospective chart review.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Multimorbidity in Atrial Fibrillation: Impact on Outcomes.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Observational
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. HHeart and vessels · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Alanna M ChamberlainDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn. Electronic address: chamberlain.alanna@mayo.edu.
Bernard J GershDivision of Cardiovascular Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.
Alvaro AlonsoDivision of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
Lin Y ChenCardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis.
Cecilia BerardiDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.
Sheila M ManemannDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.
Jill M KillianDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.
Susan A WestonDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.
Véronique L RogerDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn; Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.

Funding

University of Minnesota Clinical and Translational Science Institute (UMN CTSI)UL1TR000114 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI BLAZAR, BRUCE R · 2012 to 2015
$35.0M
Rochester Epidemiology ProjectR01AG034676 · NIA · MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER · PI ROCCA, WALTER A, ST SAUVER, JENNIFER LYNN · 2010 to 2019
$9.5M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000114NIA NIH HHS R01 AG034676NIA NIH HHS R01AG034676
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundContemporary data on temporal trends in incidence and survival after atrial fibrillation are scarce.

methodsResidents of Olmsted County, Minn., with a first-ever atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter event between 2000 and 2010 were identified. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were standardized to the 2010 US population, and the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in 2010 versus 2000 was calculated using Poisson regression. Standardized mortality ratios of observed versus expected survival were calculated, and time trends in survival were examined using Cox regression.

resultsWe identified 3344 patients with incident atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter events (52% were male, mean age 72.6 years, 95.7% were white). Incidence did not change over time (age- and sex-adjusted rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.13 for 2010 vs 2000). Within the first 90 days, the risk of all-cause mortality was greatly elevated compared with individuals of a similar age and sex distribution in the general population (standardized mortality ratios 19.4 [95% CI, 17.3-21.7] and 4.2 [95% CI, 3.5-5.0] for the first 30 days and 31 to 90 days after diagnosis, respectively). Survival within the first 90 days did not improve over the study period (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.71-1.32 for 2010 vs 2000); likewise, no difference in mortality between 2010 and 2000 was observed among 90-day survivors (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.31).

conclusionsIn the community, atrial fibrillation incidence and survival have remained constant over the last decade. A dramatic and persistent excess risk of death was observed in the 90 days after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, underscoring the importance of early risk stratification.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterAgedAge DistributionConfidence IntervalsData CollectionEarly DiagnosisFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMinnesotaMortalityProportional Hazards ModelsRegistriesRisk AssessmentAtrial fibrillationEpidemiologyIncidenceSurvival

Identifiers

PMID25446299
PMCPMC4340721

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.