Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25421503›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2015

Adaptive pair-matching in randomized trials with unbiased and efficient effect estimation.

Laura B Balzer, Maya L Petersen, Mark J van der Laan, SEARCH Consortium

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT01864603 (Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health), which is not on this map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT01864603 nacompletednot on this map

Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of California, San FranciscoRan2013 to 2021Enrolled150,395ConditionsHIV, Tuberculosis, Hypertension, DiabetesArmsUniversal ART in a streamlined care model, Annual Community Health Campaigns, Targeted PrEP and Targeted testing interventions, Baseline community-based HIV and multi-disease testing
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Sleeping for Two: a randomized controlled trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia in pregnancy.Journal of clinical sleep medicine : JCSM : official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Laura B BalzerDivision of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94110-7358, U.S.A.
Maya L Petersen
Mark J van der Laan
SEARCH Consortium

Funding

Reducing Failure-to-Initiate ART: Streamlined ART Start Strategy (START)U01AI099959 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI HAVLIR, DIANE V · 2012 to 2016
$39.7M
Targeted Learning using adaptive designs for HIV Epidemic control in East AfricaR01AI074345 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI PETERSEN, MAYA LIV, VANDERLAAN, MARK J · 2007 to 2023
$6.6M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI074345NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI099959
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In randomized trials, pair-matching is an intuitive design strategy to protect study validity and to potentially increase study power. In a common design, candidate units are identified, and their baseline characteristics used to create the best n/2 matched pairs. Within the resulting pairs, the intervention is randomized, and the outcomes measured at the end of follow-up. We consider this design to be adaptive, because the construction of the matched pairs depends on the baseline covariates of all candidate units. As a consequence, the observed data cannot be considered as n/2 independent, identically distributed pairs of units, as common practice assumes. Instead, the observed data consist of n dependent units. This paper explores the consequences of adaptive pair-matching in randomized trials for estimation of the average treatment effect, conditional the baseline covariates of the n study units. By avoiding estimation of the covariate distribution, estimators of this conditional effect will often be more precise than estimators of the marginal effect. We contrast the unadjusted estimator with targeted minimum loss based estimation and show substantial efficiency gains from matching and further gains with adjustment. This work is motivated by the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health study, an ongoing community randomized trial to evaluate the impact of immediate and streamlined antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in rural East Africa.

Indexed as

Cluster AnalysisResearch DesignAfricaAnti-Retroviral AgentsComputer SimulationData Interpretation, StatisticalHIV InfectionsHumansLinear ModelsLogistic ModelsRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicAnti-Retroviral Agentsadaptive designscausal inferenceefficiencypair-matchingrandomized trialstargeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE)

Identifiers

PMID25421503
PMCPMC4318754

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.