ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs2014
Providing clinicians and patients with actual prognosis: cancer in the context of competing causes of death.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
51 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Exercise and lung cancer surgery: A systematic review of randomized-controlled trials.Critical reviews in oncology/hematology · 2020Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Communicating prognosis to women with early breast cancer - overview of prediction tools and the development and pilot testing of a decision aid.BMC health services research · 2019Pooled it
- Associations between comorbidities and survival outcomes in older adults with cancer: a scoping review of international and Japanese evidence.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Sex Differences in Overall Survival Among Patients with Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Across Clinical Stages: A Population-Based SEER Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Colon Cancer Survival: Predictive Modeling Approach.JMIR cancer · 2025Article
- Assessing the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on 1-year cancer survival in the United States.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Clinical features and prognostic nomogram development for cancer-specific death in patients with dual primary lung cancer: a population-based study from SEER database.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2025Article
- Adapting a Mobile Health App for Smoking Cessation in Black Adults With Anxiety Through an Analysis of the Mobile Anxiety Sensitivity Program Proof-of-Concept Trial: Qualitative Study.JMIR formative research · 2025Article
- Assessing 1-Year Comorbidity Prevalence and Its Survival Implications in Medicare Beneficiaries Diagnosed with Cancer: Insights from a New SEER-Medicare Resource.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Article
- Time-varying associations of patient and tumor characteristics with cancer survival: an analysis of SEER data across 14 cancer sites, 2004-2017.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2024Article
- Squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder in patients with chronic spinal cord injury: A case series.Spinal cord series and cases · 2024Article
- The nomogram for the prediction of overall survival after surgery in patients in early-stage NSCLC based on SEER database and external validation cohort.Cancer medicine · 2024Article
- Prediction of Risk of Metastatic Recurrence for Female Breast Cancer Patients in the Presence of Competing Causes of Death.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023Article
- Cancer mortality and competing causes of death in older adults with cancer: A prospective, multicentre cohort study (ELCAPA-19).Cancer medicine · 2023Article
- Prevalence of comorbidities and their impact on survival among older adults with the five most common cancers in Taiwan: a population study.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Risk assessment of disease recurrence in early breast cancer: A serum metabolomic study focused on elderly patients.Translational oncology · 2023Article
- Overall survival analyses of female malignancies in Southern Brazil during 2008-2017: A closer look at breast, cervical and ovarian cancer.Dialogues in health · 2022Review
- Sociodemographic Survival Disparities for Lung Cancer in the United States, 2000-2016.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2022Article
- A guide for managing patients with stage I NSCLC: deciding between lobectomy, segmentectomy, wedge, SBRT and ablation-part 3: systematic review of evidence regarding surgery in compromised patients or specific tumors.Journal of thoracic disease · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo isolate progress against cancer from changes in competing causes of death, population cancer registries have traditionally reported cancer prognosis (net measures). But clinicians and cancer patients generally want to understand actual prognosis (crude measures): the chance of surviving, dying from the specific cancer and from competing causes of death in a given time period.
objectiveTo compare cancer and actual prognosis in the United States for four leading cancers-lung, breast, prostate, and colon-by age, comorbidity, and cancer stage and to provide templates to help patients, clinicians, and researchers understand actual prognosis.
methodUsing population-based registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, we calculated cancer prognosis (relative survival) and actual prognosis (five-year overall survival and the "crude" probability of dying from cancer and competing causes) for three important prognostic determinants (age, comorbidity [Charlson-score from 2012 SEER-Medicare linkage dataset] and cancer stage at diagnosis).
resultFor younger, healthier, and earlier stage cancer patients, cancer and actual prognosis estimates were quite similar. For older and sicker patients, these prognosis estimates differed substantially. For example, the five-year overall survival for an 85-year-old patient with colorectal cancer is 54% (cancer prognosis) versus 22% (actual prognosis)-the difference reflecting the patient's substantial chance of dying from competing causes. The corresponding five-year chances of dying from the patient's cancer are 46% versus 37%. Although age and comorbidity lowered actual prognosis, stage at diagnosis was the most powerful factor: The five-year chance of colon cancer death was 10% for localized stage and 83% for distant stage.
conclusionBoth cancer and actual prognosis measures are important. Cancer registries should routinely report both cancer and actual prognosis to help clinicians and researchers understand the difference between these measures and what question they can and cannot answer. We encourage them to use formats like the ones presented in this paper to communicate them clearly.
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