ArticleAIDS (London, England)2014
Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
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35 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Progress and challenges towards eliminating vertical transmission of HIV in India.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Triangulation of Routine Antenatal HIV Prevalence Data and Adjusted HIV Estimates in Mozambique.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Probabilistic HIV recency classification-a logistic regression without labeled individual level training data.The annals of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Recent HIV Infection: Diagnosis and Public Health Implications.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.The lancet. HIV · 2021Article
- Comparison of HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees estimated from routine testing and unlinked anonymous testing.Statistics in biosciences · 2020Article
- A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2020Article
- Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Review
- Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India.Nepal journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Age bias in survey sampling and implications for estimating HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men: insights from mathematical modelling.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.International journal of public health · 2018Article
- Article
- Transitioning from antenatal surveillance surveys to routine HIV testing: a turning point in the mother-to-child transmission prevention programme for HIV surveillance in Brazil.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveDescribe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.
methodsKey changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15-49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting.
resultsThe revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.
conclusionSpectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.
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