Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25402333›Full record

ArticlePloS one2014

Validation, replication, and sensitivity testing of Heckman-type selection models to adjust estimates of HIV prevalence.

Samuel J Clark, Brian Houle

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  18. Sex-specific maps of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2016
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Samuel J ClarkDepartment of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America; Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America; MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Brian HouleInstitute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America; MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Funding

Methods and Data CoreR24HD042828 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI CURRAN, SARA R. · 2002 to 2016
$9.3M
Statistical Methods for Population ProjectionsR01HD070936 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2012 to 2021
$3.3M
Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemics: Bayesian Prevalence & Size EstimateR01HD054511 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2007 to 2016
$3.2M
Partnership for Social Science AIDS Research in South African's Era of ART RollouR24AG032112 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI MENKEN, JANE A · 2007 to 2011
$1.6M
NICHD Population CenterR21HD051146 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER · PI ROGERS, RICHARD G · 2005 to 2009
$884k
Predicting Impacts of Infectious Disease on Structure and Dynamics of PopulationsK01HD057246 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI CLARK, SAMUEL J · 2008 to 2012
$620k
NIA NIH HHS R24 AG032112NIA NIH HHS R24AG032112NICHD NIH HHS K01 HD057246NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD054511NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070936NICHD NIH HHS R21 HD051146NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD042828PHS HHS NICHD R21 HD051146Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A recent study using Heckman-type selection models to adjust for non-response in the Zambia 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) found a large correction in HIV prevalence for males. We aim to validate this finding, replicate the adjustment approach in other DHSs, apply the adjustment approach in an external empirical context, and assess the robustness of the technique to different adjustment approaches. We used 6 DHSs, and an HIV prevalence study from rural South Africa to validate and replicate the adjustment approach. We also developed an alternative, systematic model of selection processes and applied it to all surveys. We decomposed corrections from both approaches into rate change and age-structure change components. We are able to reproduce the adjustment approach for the 2007 Zambia DHS and derive results comparable with the original findings. We are able to replicate applying the approach in several other DHSs. The approach also yields reasonable adjustments for a survey in rural South Africa. The technique is relatively robust to how the adjustment approach is specified. The Heckman selection model is a useful tool for assessing the possibility and extent of selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates from sample surveys.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAlgorithmsFemaleHIV-1HIV InfectionsHumansMalePrevalenceReproducibility of ResultsSelection BiasSouth AfricaZambia

Identifiers

PMID25402333
PMCPMC4234405

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.