Observational studyThe British journal of surgery2014
Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT).
Observational study in The British journal of surgery, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 113 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Validation of Postoperative Mortality Prediction for Elective Major Surgical Operation With Existing Risk Calculators Based on Preoperative Parameters
Prospective Validation of a Risk Stratification Model for Mortality Up to 30 Days After Surgery
Who cites it
113 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Guideline
- External validation of a surgical mortality risk prediction model for inpatient noncardiac surgery in an Australian private health insurance dataset.ANZ journal of surgery · 2022Pooled it
- Waterlow score for risk assessment in surgical patients: a systematic review.Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2021Pooled it
- Gender benefit in laparoscopic surgical performance using a 3D-display system: data from a randomized cross-over trial.Surgical endoscopy · 2022Trial
- Development of the Novel G-CMAP Score: A Preoperative Scoring System for Predicting Postoperative Complications After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Association Between Postoperative Day 7 Hypoalbuminemia and Mortality After Surgery: A Single-Center Retrospective Landmark Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Radiomics and anaesthetic planning: Quantitative imaging as a new frontier in preoperative risk assessment.World journal of radiology · 2026Review
- Withholding or continuing glucose-lowering drugs for elective surgery in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a secondary analysis of the MOPED international, prospective, observational study.British journal of anaesthesia · 2026Observational
- Large language models for predicting postoperative complications: benefits, potential, and limitations of clinical use.Korean journal of anesthesiology · 2026Article
- Complications during interventional rigid bronchoscopy with general anaesthesia and high-frequency jet ventilation: a 5-year retrospective pilot study.European journal of anaesthesiology and intensive care · 2026Article
- 30-Day mortality risk predictors for emergency laparotomy: a comparative study.Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2026Article
- Postoperative outcomes in older patients with postoperative delirium in the UK: SNAP-3, a snapshot observational study.British journal of anaesthesia · 2026Observational
- Management and Outcomes of Perioperative Care of People with Diabetes across Europe (MOPED): a prospective, observational study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2026Article
- Development, external validation and integration into clinical workflow of machine learning models to support pre-operative assessment in the UK.Anaesthesia · 2026Article
- Challenges in shared decision-making about major lower limb amputation: the PERCEIVE qualitative study.BMJ open · 2026Observational
- Application of predicting risk of cardiovascular disease events equations on postoperative major adverse cardiac and cerebral events for patients undergoing thoracic surgery.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2026Article
- Beyond static risk scores: dynamic world models simulating patient-specific trajectories to inform preoperative risk mitigation strategies.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Prediction of mortality after esophagectomy: A comprehensive analysis of various risk scores in a national esophageal center.Surgery open science · 2025Article
- Predictive validity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes in inpatient elective surgery: a population-based study.British journal of anaesthesia · 2025Article
53 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundExisting risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study.
methodsThe data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort.
resultsProspective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001).
conclusionThe SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.