ArticleeLife2014
Predicting evolution from the shape of genealogical trees.
Article in eLife, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 135 papers.
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Who cites it
135 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Spatiotemporal lineage tracing reveals the dynamic spatial architecture of tumor growth and metastasis.Nature genetics · 2026Article
- From sites to structure to serology: a roadmap for structure-aware molecular evolution of antigenically evolving viruses.Journal of virology · 2026Review
- Comparison of phylogenetic metrics of transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic tuberculosis in individuals who were incarcerated in Brazil in 2008-24: a retrospective genomic epidemiology study.The Lancet. Microbe · 2026Article
- Quantifying the predictability of evolution by analysis of coalescent rate variation.Molecular biology and evolution · 2026Article
- LeafRank: A phylodynamic framework for inferring relative fitness from single-cell phylogenies in chromosomally unstable tumors.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Inheritance entropy: A model-independent method to probe the hereditary structure of cell lineage trees.PRX life · 2026Article
- Recurrence in the chemotherapy regimen of bladder carcinoma originates from quiescent epidermoid-like cells.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Predicting the antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza viruses using phylogenetic convergence.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- The global phylogeography of rapidly expanding multidrug resistant Ural lineage 4.2 Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Nature communications · 2026Article
- HERMES: Holographic Equivariant neuRal network model for Mutational Effect and Stability prediction.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- ConvexML: Fast and Accurate Branch Length Estimation under Irreversible Mutation Models, Illustrated through Applications to CRISPR/Cas9-Based Lineage Tracing.Systematic biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Different antigenic distance metrics generate similar predictions of influenza vaccine response breadth despite moderate correlation.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Influenza vaccine strain selection with an AI-based evolutionary and antigenicity model.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- High-resolution spatial mapping of cell state and lineage dynamics in vivo with PEtracer.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2025Article
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- Comparison of phylogenetic metrics of transmission in symptomatic and asymptomatic tuberculosis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Opportunities for machine learning to predict cross-neutralization in FMDV serotype O.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
75 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Given a sample of genome sequences from an asexual population, can one predict its evolutionary future? Here we demonstrate that the branching patterns of reconstructed genealogical trees contains information about the relative fitness of the sampled sequences and that this information can be used to predict successful strains. Our approach is based on the assumption that evolution proceeds by accumulation of small effect mutations, does not require species specific input and can be applied to any asexual population under persistent selection pressure. We demonstrate its performance using historical data on seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus. We predict the progenitor lineage of the upcoming influenza season with near optimal performance in 30% of cases and make informative predictions in 16 out of 19 years. Beyond providing a tool for prediction, our ability to make informative predictions implies persistent fitness variation among circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.