ArticlePloS one2014
How can we get close to zero? The potential contribution of biomedical prevention and the investment framework towards an effective response to HIV.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 81 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evolving landscape of economic evaluations of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation strategies: a systematic review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Pooled it
- Systematic review and meta-analysis assessing the knowledge and use of the female condom among Nigerians.African health sciences · 2021Pooled it
- In what circumstances could nondaily preexposure prophylaxis for HIV substantially reduce program costs?AIDS (London, England) · 2018Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Accelerating Innovation: Advancing Opportunities in HIV Vaccine Development.Current HIV research · 2026Review
- Uncovering the impact of randomness in HIV hotspot formation: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Generalized Treatment as Prevention Plus Focused Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Is the Key to Controlling HIV/AIDS.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Direct intranodal tonsil vaccination with modified vaccinia Ankara vaccine protects macaques from highly pathogenic SIVmac251.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The case for prevention - Primary HIV prevention in the era of universal test and treat: A mathematical modeling study.EClinicalMedicine · 2022Article
- Priority Setting in HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria - New Cost-Effectiveness Results From WHO-CHOICE.International journal of health policy and management · 2021Article
- Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
- The impact of condom use on the HIV epidemic.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Predicted Effectiveness of Daily and Nondaily Preexposure Prophylaxis for Men Who Have Sex With Men Based on Sex and Pill-taking Patterns From the Human Immuno Virus Prevention Trials Network 067/ADAPT Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Article
- Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV: Modelling Age Prioritization in Namibia.AIDS and behavior · 2019Review
- The impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of modelling contributions and way forward.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- A live-attenuated RhCMV/SIV vaccine shows long-term efficacy against heterologous SIV challenge.Science translational medicine · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn 2011 an Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half. However, it also estimated a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually after 2015.
methodsWe modeled how the response to AIDS can be further expanded by scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) within the framework provided by the 2013 WHO treatment guidelines. We further explored the potential contributions of new prevention technologies: 'Test and Treat', pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine.
findingsImmediate aggressive scale up of existing approaches including the 2013 WHO guidelines could reduce new infections by 80%. A 'Test and Treat' approach could further reduce new infections. This could be further enhanced by a future highly effective pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine, so that a combination of all four approaches could reduce new infections to as low as 80,000 per year by 2050 and annual AIDS deaths to 260,000.
interpretationIn a set of ambitious scenarios, we find that immediate implementation of the 2013 WHO antiretroviral therapy guidelines could reduce new HIV infections by 80%. Further reductions may be achieved by moving to a 'Test and Treat' approach, and eventually by adding a highly effective pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine, if they become available.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.