Red mangrove life history variables along latitudinal and anthropogenic stress gradients.

Mangroves migrate northward in Florida and colonize marshes historically dominated by salt marsh species. In theory, this migration should be facilitated by greater numbers of propagules stemming from increased reproductive activity and greater genetic variability caused by outcrossing. We aimed to determine if stand reproduction and % outcrossing were affected by cold stress (stress increases with latitude), anthropogenic stress (human population density as a proxy), and years since a major hurricane. Further, we wished to determine if mutation rate varied with the stressors and if that affected stand reproduction. Both coasts of Florida from the southern Florida Keys to Tampa Bay on the Gulf of Mexico coast, and Merritt Island on the Atlantic coast. We conducted field surveys of frequency of reproducing trees (104,211 trees surveyed in 102 forested stands), incidence of trees showing albinism in propagules, and% outcrossing estimated from the ratio of albino:normal propagules. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test a conceptual model that served as a multivariate hypothesis. Reproductive frequencies varied by site and increased with latitude although more strongly on the Gulf coast. Our SEM results indicate that outcrossing increases in this predominately selfing species under conditions of cold and anthropogenic stress, and that this increases reproductive output in the population. Further, we find that increased mutation rates suppress stand reproductive output but there is no significant relationship between outcrossing and mutation rate. Tree size responded to stressors but did not affect stand reproduction. Reproduction increased with years since major hurricane. Potential for colonization of northern Florida salt marshes by mangroves is enhanced by increased reproductive rates that provides more propagules and outcrossing that should enhance genetic variation thereby promoting adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Natural (cold) stress reduced mutation rate and increased stand reproductive output but anthropogenic stress did the opposite.