ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2014
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Prediction of Trends and Bioclimatic Factors Influencing the Monthly Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Using Arima and Sarima Time Series Models in Maraveh Tappeh County, Golestan Province, Iran.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2025Article
- Morbidity and Mortality Profile of Leishmaniasis in an Andean Region of Ecuador in the Context of Climate Change.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
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- Predicting the Effect of Temperature Changes onTransboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- The Impact of Climatological Factors on the Incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombian Municipalities from 2017 to 2019.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
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- The effect of climate variables on the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan, Central Iran.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Visceral leishmaniasis cyclical trends in Bihar, India - implications for the elimination programme.Gates open research · 2018Article
- Article
- Mucosal leishmaniasis: A Retrospective Study of 327 Cases from an Endemic Area ofThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2017Article
- Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2017Review
- A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2017Article
- Spatially Correlated Time Series and Ecological Niche Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL
findingsWe fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. SIGNIFICANCE: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.
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