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ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2015

Nationwide cohort study of hip fractures: time trends in the incidence rates and projections up to 2035.

I-J Chen, C-Y F Chiang, Y-H Li, C-H Chang, C-C Hu, D W Chen, Y Chang, W-E Yang, H-N Shih, S W-N Ueng and 1 more

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Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed.

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  7. Establish and validate the reliability of predictive models in bone mineral density by deep learning as examination tool for women.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
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  9. Hip fracture or not? The reversed prevalence effect among non-experts' diagnosis.Cognitive research: principles and implications · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

I-J ChenDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No.5, Fuxing Street 333, Guishan Township, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
C-Y F Chiang
Y-H Li
C-H Chang
C-C Hu
D W Chen
Y Chang
W-E Yang
H-N Shih
S W-N Ueng
P-H Hsieh

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

summaryA growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the burden of hip fractures on health care system will continue to increase. By 2035, there will be a 2.7-fold increase in the number of hip fractures in Taiwan. The study provides quantitative basis for the future distribution of medical resources.

introductionHip fractures have long been recognized as a major public health concern. The study aimed to determine time trends in the incidence of hip fractures and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Taiwan up to 2035.

methodsA nationwide survey was conducted using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2004 to 2011. A total of 141,397 hip fractures were identified, with a mean of 17,675 fractures/year. Annual incidences of hip fractures were calculated and tested for trends. Projections of the incidence rates of hip fractures and bed days associated with hip fractures were calculated using Poisson regression on the historical incidence rates in combination with population projections from 2012 to 2035.

resultsThe incidence rates of hip fracture during 2004-2011 were 317 and 211 per 100,000 person-years among women and men, respectively. Over this 8-year period, the age-standardized incidence of hip fracture decreased by 13.4% among women and 12.2% among men. Despite the decline in the age-standardized incidence, the absolute number of hip fractures increased owing to the aging population. The number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 18,338 in 2010 to 50,421 in 2035-a 2.7-fold increase. The number of bed days for 2010 and 2035 was estimated at 161,248 and 501,995, respectively, representing a 3.1-fold increase.

conclusionsThe socioeconomic impact of hip fractures will be high in the near future. This study provides a quantitative basis for future policy decisions to serve this need.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionBed OccupancyCohort StudiesFemaleForecastingHealth SurveysHip FracturesHumansIncidenceLength of StayMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporotic FracturesSex Distribution

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.