ArticleStatistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics2014
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
Article in Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- An inevitably ageing world: analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth.Communications earth & environment · 2025Article
- BAYESIAN PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATE CONDITIONAL ON THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS.The annals of applied statistics · 2024Article
- Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.Demography · 2023Article
- Long-Term Survival of Multiple Versus Single Arterial Coronary Bypass Grafting in Elderly Patients.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Article
- On the use of historical estimates.Statistical papers (Berlin, Germany) · 2023Article
- Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty: A Major Update of the bayesTFR R Package.Journal of statistical software · 2023Article
- Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Projecting populations for major Pacific Island countries with and without COVID-19: pro-active insights for population policy.Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) · 2022Article
- Stochastic reliability-based risk evaluation and mapping for watershed systems and sustainability (STREAMS).Journal of hydrology · 2021Article
- Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
- Encephalitic Arboviruses of Africa: Emergence, Clinical Presentation and Neuropathogenesis.Frontiers in immunology · 2021Review
- How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?Population and development review · 2020Article
- ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PAST VALUES IN PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FOR MOST COUNTRIES.The annals of applied statistics · 2020Article
- Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.Lancet (London, England) · 2018Article
- Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population.PloS one · 2018Article
- Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.Nature climate change · 2017Article
- Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.Statistical analysis and data mining · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and researchers. Like almost all other population projections, they are produced using the standard deterministic cohort-component projection method and do not yield statements of uncertainty. We describe a Bayesian method for producing probabilistic population projections for most countries that the United Nations could use. It has at its core Bayesian hierarchical models for the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. We illustrate the method and show how it can be extended to address concerns about the UN's current assumptions about the long-term distribution of fertility. The method is implemented in the R packages bayesTFR, bayesLife, bayesPop and bayesDem.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.