ArticleHeart (British Cardiac Society)2015
A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.
Article in Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review.BMC health services research · 2025Pooled it
- The Chronic Kidney Disease Care Model: Quantifying Management Strategies for Improving Patient Outcomes in the USA.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of statins, berberine, and combination for primary cardiovascular disease prevention in Scotland.NPJ cardiovascular health · 2026Article
- Beyond the States: Developing a Discrete Event Simulation Model Using R.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Review
- Alternative cascade-testing protocols for identifying and managing patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia: systematic reviews, qualitative study and cost-effectiveness analysis.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2023Article
- Beyond 10-Year Risk: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Statins for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.Circulation · 2022Article
- Linking agroecosystems producing farmed seafood with food security and health status to better address the nutritional challenges in Bangladesh.Public health nutrition · 2019Review
- Transparency in Decision Modelling: What, Why, Who and How?PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
- Mechanical circulatory support for refractory cardiogenic shock post-acute myocardial infarction-a decade of lessons.Journal of thoracic disease · 2019Article
- Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in stable coronary artery disease.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2016Article
- Article
- Development and Validation of the US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) Model: Health Disparity and Economic Impact Model.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision MakingArticle
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesA policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.
designA state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.
resultsOur model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.
conclusionsOur model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.