Overview of global, regional, and national routine vaccination coverage trends and growth patterns from 1980 to 2009: implications for vaccine-preventable disease eradication and elimination initiatives.

backgroundReview of the historical growth in annual vaccination coverage across countries and regions can better inform decision makers' development of future goals and strategies to improve routine vaccination services.

methodsUsing the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund estimates of annual national third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) and third dose of polio vaccine (POL3) coverage for 1980-2009, we calculated the mean absolute annual rate of change in national DTP3 coverage among all countries (globally) and among countries within each WHO region, as well as the number of years taken by each region to reach specific regional coverage levels. Last, we assessed differences in mean absolute annual rate of change in DTP3 coverage, stratified by baseline level of DTP3 coverage.

resultsDuring the 1980s, global DTP3 coverage increased a mean of 5.3 percentage points/year. Annual rate of change decreased to 0.5 percentage points/year in the 1990s and then increased to 0.9 percentage points/year during the 2000s. Mean annual rate of change in coverage across all countries was highest (9.2 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 26%-30% and lowest (-0.9 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 96%-100%. Regional differences existed as both WHO South-East Asia Region and WHO African Region countries experienced mean negative DTP3 coverage growth at lower coverage levels (81%-85%) than other regions. The regions that have achieved 95% DTP3 coverage (Americas, Western Pacific, and European) took 25-29 years to reach that level from a level of 50% DTP3 coverage. POL3 coverage change trends were similar to described DTP3 coverage change trends.

conclusionsMean national coverage growth patterns across all regions are nonlinear as coverage levels increase. Saturation points of mean 0 percentage-point growth in annual coverage varies by region and require further investigation. The achievement of >90% routine coverage is observed to take decades, which has implications for disease eradication and elimination initiatives.