Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25315474›Full record

SynthesisAmerican journal of hypertension2015

Prognostic significance of the morning blood pressure surge in clinical practice: a systematic review.

James Peter Sheppard, James Hodgkinson, Richard Riley, Una Martin, Susan Bayliss, Richard J McManus

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in American journal of hypertension, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Pooled it
  3. Trial
  4. Trial
  5. Blood Pressure Variability (BPV): What Clinicians Need to Know a 2025 Expert Consensus Report Endorsed by the Egyptian Society of Cardiology.High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension · 2025
    Article
  6. Review
  7. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring profiles in Asia.Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2024
    Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Association of Morning Surge and Postexercise Heart Rate and Blood Pressure Recovery.High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension · 2022
    Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

James Peter SheppardNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Primary Care Clinical Sciences NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK; james.sheppard@phc.ox.ac.uk.
James HodgkinsonPrimary Care Clinical Sciences NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK;
Richard RileySchool of Health and Population Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK;
Una MartinSchool of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
Susan BaylissSchool of Health and Population Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK;
Richard J McManusNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, NIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;

Funding

Department of Health CDF/01/017Department of Health NIHR-RP-02-12-015Department of Health PB-PG-1207-15042Department of Health RP-PG-1209-10051Medical Research Council MR/K022032/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAn exaggerated morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) may be associated with stroke and other cardiovascular events, but the threshold at which an MBPS becomes pathological is unclear. This study aimed to systematically review the existing literature and establish the most appropriate definition of pathological MBPS.

methodsA MEDLINE search strategy was adapted for a range of literature databases to identify all prospective studies relating an exaggerated MBPS to cardiovascular endpoints. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted and synthesized using random-effects meta-analysis.

resultsThe search strategy identified 2,964 unique articles, of which 17 were eligible for the study. Seven different definitions of MBPS were identified; the most common was a prewaking surge (mean blood pressure for 2 hours after wake-up minus mean blood pressure for 2 hours before wake-up; n = 6 studies). Summary meta-analysis gave no clear evidence that prewaking MBPS (defined by a predetermined threshold: >25-55 mm Hg) was associated with all cardiovascular events (n = 2 studies; HR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39-2.28) or stroke (n = 2 studies; HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.92-1.71). However, using a continuous scale, which has more power to detect an association, there was evidence that a 10 mm Hg increase in MBPS was related to an increased risk of stroke (n = 3 studies; HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03-1.20).

conclusionsThese findings suggest that when measured and analyzed as a continuous variable, increasing levels of MBPS may be associated with increased risk of stroke. Large, protocol-driven individual patient data analyses are needed to accurately define this relationship further.

Indexed as

Blood PressureCircadian RhythmBlood Pressure DeterminationHumansHypertensionOdds RatioPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSleepStrokeTime FactorsWakefulnessambulatory blood pressure monitoringblood pressurecardiovascular disease risk factorscardiovascular diseasescircadian rhythmhypertensionstroke.

Identifiers

PMID25315474
PMCPMC4261916

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.