ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014
Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cost-Effectiveness of the 'One4All' HIV Linkage Intervention in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China.PloS one · 2016Trial
- Article
- Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: Parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India.Communications in nonlinear science & numerical simulation · 2023Article
- Recent HIV Infection: Diagnosis and Public Health Implications.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Modeling the Impact of Social Determinants of Health on HIV.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- The effect of 90-90-90 on HIV-1 incidence and mortality in eSwatini: a mathematical modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2020Article
- The impact of implementing HIV prevention policies therapy and control strategy among HIV and AIDS incidence cases in Malaysia.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Contribution of high risk groups' unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
- Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Article
- Eliminating hepatitis C virus as a public health threat among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: a multi-modelling approach to understand differences in sexual risk behaviour.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Sensitivity of joint contagiousness and susceptibility-based dynamic optimal control strategies for HIV prevention.PloS one · 2018Article
- The missing 27.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Forward reachable sets: Analytically derived properties of connected components for dynamic networks.Network science (Cambridge University Press) · 2017Article
- A network intervention that locates and intervenes with recently HIV-infected persons: The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP).Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Reducing HIV infection in people who inject drugs is impossible without targeting recently-infected subjects.AIDS (London, England) · 2016Article
- Acute HIV infection transmission among people who inject drugs in a mature epidemic setting.AIDS (London, England) · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the infectiousness of HIV-infected persons, but only after testing, linkage to care, and successful viral suppression. Thus, a large proportion of HIV transmission during a period of high infectiousness in the first few months after infection ("early transmission") is perceived as a threat to the impact of HIV "treatment-as-prevention" strategies. We created a mathematical model of a heterosexual HIV epidemic to investigate how the proportion of early transmission affects the impact of ART on reducing HIV incidence. The model includes stages of HIV infection, flexible sexual mixing, and changes in risk behavior over the epidemic. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from South Africa using a Bayesian framework. Immediately after ART was introduced, more early transmission was associated with a smaller reduction in HIV incidence rate--consistent with the concern that a large amount of early transmission reduces the impact of treatment on incidence. However, the proportion of early transmission was not strongly related to the long-term reduction in incidence. This was because more early transmission resulted in a shorter generation time, in which case lower values for the basic reproductive number (R0) are consistent with observed epidemic growth, and R0 was negatively correlated with long-term intervention impact. The fraction of early transmission depends on biological factors, behavioral patterns, and epidemic stage and alone does not predict long-term intervention impacts. However, early transmission may be an important determinant in the outcome of short-term trials and evaluation of programs.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.