ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2014
Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 244 citations in OpenAlex.
- Antioxidants and Fertility in Women with Ovarian Aging: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) · 2024Pooled it
- Wii or Kinect? A Pilot Study of the Exergame Effects on Older Adults' Physical Fitness and Psychological Perception.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Trial
- Research progress on multi-mechanism analysis and protection strategies of ovarian aging and fertility decline.Journal of ovarian research · 2026Review
- Are Higher Medical Benefits Associated with Fertility Intentions?-A Survey Study from the Yangtze River Delta Region.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Low fertility may persist and could be good for the economy.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- Pattern of couples' childbearing behaviors: a focused ethnographic study in Iran.BMC public health · 2025Article
- From population goals to reproductive health autonomy: Reframing India's fertility transition.The Indian journal of medical research · 2025Article
- Stationary Population Dynamics Reveal a Structural Typology of Global Aging: A Binary Model Approach Across 195 Countries.Research square · 2025Article
- Ageing affecting the Americas?: exploring the growth direction: the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the American context.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- The application of machine learning approaches to classify and predict fertility rate in Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of thyroid cancer in women of child-bearing age, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2035: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
- Fertility intentions in the era of the new three-child policy in China: a cross-sectional survey of married adults of reproductive age.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Dietary index for gut microbiota and its inverse association with female infertility: evidence from NHANES 2013-2018.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- New insights into the association between cardiometabolic index with metabolic profile, nutritional status, and inflammaging in older adults.Frontiers in aging · 2025Article
- Flexible Working Arrangements and Fertility Intentions: A Survey Experiment in Singapore.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2024Article
- Article
- Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020-2040.Journal of global health · 2024Observational
- Increasing the frequency of plant-based food intake in daily diets reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease among elderly Chinese: a cohort study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- Temporal trends of thyroid cancer between 2010 and 2019 in Asian countries by geographical region and SDI, comparison with global data.Aging medicine (Milton (N.S.W)) · 2023Article
- Demography as a Field: Where We Came From and Where We Are Headed.Canadian studies in population · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 12 institutions in 8 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.