ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2014
Impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04975178 (Randomised, Double-Blind, Controlled Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of MTBVAC in Healthy HIV Unexposed), which is not on this map. Cited by 91 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Randomised, Double-Blind, Controlled Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of MTBVAC in Healthy HIV Unexposed (HU) and HIV Exposed Uninfected (HEU) Newborns in Tuberculosis-Endemic Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa
Who cites it
91 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 194 citations in OpenAlex.
- Rethinking Tuberculosis Morbidity Quantification: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of TB Disability Weights in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Pooled it
- Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Infant BCG vaccination and risk of pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis throughout the life course: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2022Pooled it
- Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2016Pooled it
- Co-regulation of innate and adaptive immune responses induced by ID93+GLA-SE vaccination in humans.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Trial
- CD4+ T cell cytokine responses to the DAR-901 booster vaccine in BCG-primed adults: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Prevention of M. tuberculosis Infection with H4:IC31 Vaccine or BCG Revaccination.The New England journal of medicine · 2018Trial
- Altruism, Scepticism, and collective decision-making in foreign-born U.S. residents in a tuberculosis vaccine trial.BMC public health · 2018Trial
- Trial
- T-cell activation is an immune correlate of risk in BCG vaccinated infants.Nature communications · 2016Trial
- Trial
- Interferon-gamma release assay positivity in populations at high risk of TB infection.IJTLD open · 2026Article
- T cell-macrophage interactions in tuberculosis: What we've got here is failure to communicate.Journal of internal medicine · 2026Review
- How can new TB vaccines be effectively introduced in Indonesia? Insights from diverse stakeholders.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Insights on the implementation strategies for a potential new tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Immunopeptidomics can inform the design of mRNA vaccines for the delivery ofScience translational medicine · 2025Article
- Development and preclinical evaluation of next-generation ΔsigH-based live candidate vaccines.JCI insight · 2025Article
- New adult and adolescent tuberculosis vaccines and Indonesia: policy planning and evidence, November 2024.Vaccine · 2025Article
- Article
- Intravenous BCG-mediated protection against tuberculosis requires CD4+ T cells and CD8α+ lymphocytes.The Journal of experimental medicine · 2025Article
31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
To help reach the target of tuberculosis (TB) disease elimination by 2050, vaccine development needs to occur now. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of potential TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries using an age-structured transmission model. New vaccines were assumed to be available in 2024, to prevent active TB in all individuals, to have a 5-y to lifetime duration of protection, to have 40-80% efficacy, and to be targeted at "infants" or "adolescents/adults." Vaccine prices were tiered by income group (US $1.50-$10 per dose), and cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted compared against gross national income per capita. Our results suggest that over 2024-2050, a vaccine targeted to adolescents/adults could have a greater impact than one targeted at infants. In low-income countries, a vaccine with a 10-y duration and 60% efficacy targeted at adolescents/adults could prevent 17 (95% range: 11-24) million TB cases by 2050 and could be considered cost-effective at $149 (cost saving to $387) per DALY averted. If targeted at infants, 0.89 (0.42-1.58) million TB cases could be prevented at $1,692 ($634-$4,603) per DALY averted. This profile targeted at adolescents/adults could be cost-effective at $4, $9, and $20 per dose in low-, lower-middle-, and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. Increased investments in adult-targeted TB vaccines may be warranted, even if only short duration and low efficacy vaccines are likely to be feasible, and trials among adults should be powered to detect low efficacies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.