Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25279981›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of human genetics2014

Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Eric Vallabh Minikel, Inga Zerr, Steven J Collins, Claudia Ponto, Alison Boyd, Genevieve Klug, André Karch, Joanna Kenny, John Collinge, Leonel T Takada and 4 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of human genetics, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Mortality of Individuals WithNeurology. Genetics · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Mortality of individuals with antemortem genetic testing formedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Genetic aspects of human prion diseases.Frontiers in neurology · 2022
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Estimating the Posttest Probability of Long QT Syndrome Diagnosis for RareCirculation. Genomic and precision medicine · 2021
    Article
  9. Data-driven phenotype discovery ofScience advances · 2019
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Genetic PrP Prion Diseases.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology · 2018
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Genetic prion disease: Experience of a rapidly progressive dementia center in the United States and a review of the literature.American journal of medical genetics. Part B, Neuropsychiatric genetics : the official publication of the International Society of Psychiatric Genetics · 2017
    Review
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 9 institutions in 4 countries.

Eric Vallabh MinikelPrion Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Broad Institute, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Analytical and Translational Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA. Electronic address: eric.minikel@prionalliance.org.
Inga ZerrNational Reference Center for TSE, Georg-August University, 37073 Goettingen, Germany; German Center for Neurodegenerative Disease (DZNE), 37073 Goettingen, Germany.
Steven J CollinsAustralian National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Registry, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia 3010.
Claudia PontoNational Reference Center for TSE, Georg-August University, 37073 Goettingen, Germany.
Alison BoydAustralian National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Registry, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia 3010.
Genevieve KlugAustralian National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Registry, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia 3010.
André KarchNational Reference Center for TSE, Georg-August University, 37073 Goettingen, Germany.
Joanna KennyMRC Prion Unit, Department of Neurodegenerative Disease, University College London (UCL) Institute of Neurology, and NHS National Prion Clinic, National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery, UCL Hospitals NHS Trust, Queen Square, WC1N 3BG London, UK.
John CollingeMRC Prion Unit, Department of Neurodegenerative Disease, University College London (UCL) Institute of Neurology, and NHS National Prion Clinic, National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery, UCL Hospitals NHS Trust, Queen Square, WC1N 3BG London, UK.
Leonel T TakadaDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA.
Sven FornerDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA.
Jamie C FongDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA.
Simon MeadMRC Prion Unit, Department of Neurodegenerative Disease, University College London (UCL) Institute of Neurology, and NHS National Prion Clinic, National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery, UCL Hospitals NHS Trust, Queen Square, WC1N 3BG London, UK.
Michael D GeschwindDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA.
University of Melbourne · AUUniversity Memory and Aging Center · USUniversity of California, San Francisco · USUniversity of Göttingen · DEGerman Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases · DEMassachusetts General Hospital · USMRC Prion Unit · GBNational Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery · GBUniversity College London · GB

Funding

UCSF CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTEUL1RR024131 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI JOHNSTON, S. CLAIBORNE · 2006 to 2011
$111.2M
Engaging University of California Stakeholders for Biorespository ResearchUL1TR000004 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GRANDIS, JENNIFER RUBIN · 2012 to 2015
$78.0M
UNDERSTANDING AND IMPROVING SMALL MOLECULE INHIBITORS OF PRION REPLICATIONP01AG021601 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI PRUSINER, STANLEY B · 2003 to 2013
$31.9M
PrPSc SPECIFIC INTERACTION WITH NOVEL PrP-Fc FUSION PROTEINSP50AG023501 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MILLER, BRUCE L · 2004 to 2018
$27.1M
DEVELOPMENT OF ASSAY FOR CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB DISEASE-265002328-265002328N01NS002328 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR SAN ANT · PI PRUSINER, STANLEY · 1985 to 2006
$5.9M
Predicting progression of human prion diseaseR01AG031189 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GESCHWIND, MICHAEL D · 2008 to 2017
$5.7M
New Clinical Approaches to Creutzfeldt-Jakob DiseaseK23AG021989 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GESCHWIND, MICHAEL D · 2003 to 2007
$602k
Medical Research Council G0400713Medical Research Council MC_U123160651NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000004NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024131NIA NIH HHS AG021601NIA NIH HHS K23 AG021989NIA NIH HHS P01 AG021601NIA NIH HHS P50 AG023501NIA NIH HHS P50AG023501NIA NIH HHS R01 AG-031189NIA NIH HHS R01 AG031189NINDS NIH HHS N01-NS-0-2328
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested.

Indexed as

Age of OnsetBiasAdolescentAdultAgedAnticipation, GeneticChildComputer SimulationCreutzfeldt-Jakob SyndromeFemaleGenetic Diseases, InbornHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalMutationPrion ProteinsPrionsPRNP protein, human

Identifiers

PMID25279981
PMCPMC4185115
OpenAlexW2059316245

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.